An active period of weather is about to unfold across the state with multiple troughs and a deep layer of moisture to bring more showers and thunderstorms across the state at times across the next 10 days.
Currently we have showers and thunderstorms through parts of the southern districts with a few heavier falls just south of the border through NSW, these are expected to sweep in from the southern NT and northern NSW later tonight and through Monday, reaching the coast later.
A fairly sizeable rain band from about Mount Isa through to the southeast inland of QLD will produce the most widespread rainfall we have seen since about last wet season.
A small low pressure system is expected to form along the trough in the SEQ coast with heavy falls possible and a flash flood risk, but conditions are expected to turn drier from the west later tomorrow, with full clearance of the rainfall by Tuesday morning.
Another trough moves into the state from the west and south later this week with another risk of showers and thunderstorms, some of those could pack a punch and bring follow up falls, mainly to southern areas for now, but not as widespread rainfall as we will see in this first event.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 days
Rainfall is expected to turn widespread overnight from the west and move east throughout Monday with a few moderate to heavy falls with thunderstorms. Some areas could see a months worth of rainfall with this system. Another trough passes through to the south and west during Thursday or Friday bringing yet more showers and thunderstorms, the coverage not as widespread as we are seeing now The weather turning more humid and unsettled over the northern parts of the state with the trade winds returning and the normal diurnal process taking place. The weather remaining unsettled in pockets of the state during this time over the interior with that focus becoming more refined once this system passing through the state tonight and Monday is off the board
Thunderstorm Forecast Monday
Thundery rain over the southern interior will spread into the western districts overnight and Monday from the NT and SA, this instability slowly moving eastwards. Thunderstorms are likely to redevelop over the southeast and eastern areas ahead of the main rain band during Monday afternoon, some of those could pack a punch with gusty winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. The weather clears from the west later.
Flash Flood Risk Monday
Flash flood risk is highest along the SEQ coast where the chance of slow moving thunderstorms where a southerly change stalls out. Some areas could see hourly rainfall totals of 30-50mm in an hour over a number of hours which may see some low end flash flooding. Catchments are dry so it will take quite a downpour to get significant flash flooding and I don't quite see that occurring.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
An active surface pressure pattern as outlined in the video is also reflected in the Euro this evening with now three events on the board for the east and a strong low for southwest WA emanating from the tropical Indian Ocean. So there is plenty to watch. The ongoing rain and storms over the eastern inland of the nation will continue to drift further east in the coming days with moderate to heavy falls possible. Some of those falls could see up to 1-2 months worth of rainfall for some locations. Then we track another strong system into WA tomorrow which will bring showery cold weather, well below average temperatures. This system helping to knock out the eastern low and trough and quickly bring rain and strong winds to SA and then into the southeast states, and well below average temperatures. This system will forma deep low over SA and then into the southeast later this week and there could be severe thunderstorms in the warm sector over the eastern states ahead of the low and then showery cold weather with local hail and thunder with snowfalls for Alpine areas. Graziers beware. Out west the weather warms up with above average temperatures, that will help form a heat trough which then moves east over the eastern states early in the following week with more rain and storms and possibly another low. A strong low pressure then approaches the west coast of WA with anomalous weather conditions possible, with heavy rain and strong winds. That is something to watch! Over the north, this period will see the usual showers and thunderstorms for much of the period mainly afternoon and evening, this feeding troughs with moisture further south and east lifting rainfall chances.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days
You can see the blue shadings across the north and east bringing widespread rainfall chances in the short term and then again in the medium term, watching the Indian Ocean closely as that may have a huge impact on rainfall for the back half of the month.
Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Rainfall accumulation is of moderate confidence in the short term but with the system approaching mid week for southern and southeast areas and then with the system floating off WA later in the period, these carry low confidence straps for now. It is an active period of weather but it is not uncommon to have a lot going on during Spring time. So keep the forecasts close.
A closer look in
GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks
I will have a wrap on the models and all the rainfall data coming up tonight, there is a lot of weather in the distance and I cannot stress enough the risk this poses for people over the south but more likely to east of the nation.