The weather has been pleasant these past few days, and it has been very welcome, given the very wet phase we have all been under. But it is not anticipated to last with the return of inland troughs and moisture building.

Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecasts for many of you from this weekend and through the week leading into Christmas.

At this time, there is no widespread rainfall events. The rainfall is expected to be connected to thunderstorms and where those storms form and pass over, the rainfall is still likely to be heavy.

Thunderstorms are expected to become more numerous over inland areas next week and for those looking for a drier Christmas the weather is not looking great.

Coastal areas are expected to see the easterly winds return with showers increasing with moderate to heavy falls over the northern tropics.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

As mentioned the rainfall is lean early in the sequence but the coverage is set to increase daily as we move into the weekend and then through next week, the scattered showers and thunderstorms that many of you are used to will be in place. The trough coming through on Sunday carries the risk of more widespread rainfall but the duration of that rainfall will not be long and in fact, thunderstorms could produce some pretty wild weather with heavy rainfall a concern. Next week that trough is anticipated to stall out in the easterly flow and keep the showers and thunderstorms going for many inland areas, with the easterly winds contributing to showers along the coast. The falls along the coast, not overly heavy on a daily basis but should add up to about 25mm generally.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to return to the north during the afternoon and evening, mainly about the Gulf and Cape York. Storms may be gusty but no severe weather is anticipated at this time. Just a low risk across the Torres Strait and eastern side of Cape York.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pattern remains fairly wavy over the south and drier than normal over the northern and central parts for the coming few days before normal weather returns for the most locations. The welcome drier phase for most of the nation is anticipated to continue for another week generally, there will be pockets of thundery weather about with bursts of heavier rainfall, but widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated for the next week. It is in the medium term that the conditions shift, we see the tropics turn more active and the moisture increase from north and east, through to the south. The wild card clearly is the tropical lows over the east and northwest, and IF the pattern allows for this to occur, then my forecasting will turn very wet and the flood risks will return to large parts of the nation. I will be around during Christmas in the event of severe weather unfolding and major impacts for you all nationwide.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The moisture presentation is unchanged from this morning for the short term, it is in the medium term that you will find the moisture tends deeper and more widespread and shifts southwards towards SA, NSW, VIC and the ACT. The warmer weather will turn more tropical and the rainfall chances will increase through the last week of the year on this current guide while remaining warm. The west coast of WA, dry for a while.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details in the video blog.

A closer look in - showers are likely to increase for the east coast and through the tropics but ignore that heavy rainfall of 600mm near the coast, that will move around and likely disappear. That suggests that the rainfall via easterly winds is back on the cards from Christmas.

More details after 9pm on all things rainfall and modelling, it is now getting interesting in the medium term.

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