The lingering trough that is being held in place by a slow moving upper low over NSW is expected to get a little kick on during Tuesday with thunderstorms expected to increase as the trough deepens once again and moves into a deeper moisture profile.

Thunderstorms are also possible about the southern interior along the NSW border with that focus along another trough working north on the western flank of the upper low that is moving away. Storms in that region could turn gusty and heavy as they work northwards.

Severe storms could increase in coverage on Wednesday through the SE and Wide Bay and extend into the Central Highlands and Coalfields. Some of the storms could produce all modes of severe weather.

A new trough is expected to form over the western districts as a high slips through to the south of the nation and winds veer into the east and northeast. So that will help to fuel the trough with moisture, another round of thundery weather can be expected for the Channel Country and down into Upper Western NSW during Friday and across the weekend.

For the east coast, onshore winds on top of the high will see showery weather continue and some moderate to heavy falls are possible for areas exposed to the easterly wind profile. The winds are forecast to turn more unstable for the FNQ coast and there could be heavy falls there stacking up over the course of the week.

The remainder of the tropics seeing seasonal conditions for now.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to remain fairly scattered but heavy in the east with the trough lingering over the coming 2-3 days. Some falls could surprise, and exceed 40mm over the southern interior bordering NSW tomorrow alone with a stalling trough in the region. Another round of strong to severe storms could also bring about more heavy rainfall, especially for areas north of Noosa to about Yeppoon mid week. A new trough later this week over the far west and southwest could lead to light to moderate rainfall developing under thunderstorms that emerge near that trough. There is expected to be persistent shower activity along the east coast as the winds turn into the east and southeast throughout the week into the weekend. Some heavy accumulation is possible. Scattered showers with lighter falls for the disaster zones can be expected from later this week. Central inland QLD may continue to miss out from any meaningful rainfall.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible about the southern inland of QLD during the afternoon and evening, as a weakening trough that is rotating north on the western flank of an upper low in NSW continues to surge northwards but this feature is expected to weaken and wash out. For the eastern areas, another trough may produce thunderstorms which could drop heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding across the disaster zones. Thunderstorms may be severe about the far north with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

Flash Flood Risk Tuesday

A couple of low risks on the board for Tuesday, with thunderstorm clusters across the region. Thunderstorms may produce 50mm of rain in an hour in some of these regions so be weather aware.

Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday

Damaging winds are forecast across northern areas during the afternoon and evening, along lines of thunderstorms that form in the southeast to easterly flow.

DATA - Refer to video for more details and model analysis and context behind the forecasts above.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The severe weather risks for the east should begin to ease on Tuesday as the low pressure system over the Tasman deepens into a surface low and moves east. The winds and showers persisting through the week but the rainfall intensity coming down. Storms will contract into QLD through this week with the risk of severe thunderstorms still relatively elevated. Across the remainder of the nation it is looking fairly benign with only a handful of showers and storms over in WA along the central and northwest coast. The weather over the tropics seasonal. Temperature wise, hot to very hot in the west, grading to warm to hot in SA but milder along the coast and into the southeast and eastern inland where conditions will remain below average over the east coast. Hot and very humid for the north with routine showers and storms about.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture values are coming down for parts of the eastern and southeast inland which has been well documented here for a while. Moisture will increase over northern and western Australia with moisture being pulled in from the jet stream which is running over the Indian Ocean. The moisture over NSW will contract further east and northeast into QLD and that is where it should stay until it is reintroduced into inland QLD and NSW this weekend and into next week. Moisture from the west will spread through SA and into the southeast inland and eastern inland next week. That will see rainfall chances come back up.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more on the rainfall accumulation and model assessment.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more on the rainfall accumulation and model assessment.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for more on the rainfall accumulation and model assessment.

A closer look in - refer to the video for my analysis on the state based look. There may be some agencies and ideas on the board that are fixed on statistics about where places will be dry and others not so dry, the overall trend is for low confidence forecasting until we get the upper low off the board in the east.

More coming up from 8am EDT tomorrow. I will resume the models and rainfall outlooks from tomorrow night once we lose the east coast low event and see what we are looking for in the medium term. I will have the 6 week climate outlook as well.

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