The last round of thunderstorm activity is expected on Friday as a trough finally moves through, pushed along by a broad upper low over the south of the nation. This trough will once again be the focal for lively weather with severe thunderstorms a high chance.
Over the weekend, once the trough is over the open waters, the drier westerly winds will return and we are likely to see a return to sunny, warm and breezy conditions, with above average temperatures.
When is the next rainfall though?
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall is largely expected over the coming 36hrs with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms through southern and central parts of the state and then extending to coastal communities. Then we have a dry spell with a ridge and dry air combining to bring sunny weather for most of the state. Hot and humid over the north with the chance of a few random pop up showers. Trade winds are expected to return with showers for the coast again but it will be around one week before the rainfall returns to inland areas with a trough.
Thunderstorm Forecast Friday
Thunderstorms are expected to continue overnight from the inland and roll through to the coast during Friday morning before dawn. Another round of strong to severe storms are expected during Friday afternoon and evening with the high chance of severe thunderstorms for the Southeast Inland extending into the Central Highlands and towards the Wide Bay.
Flash Flood Risk Friday
Flash flood risk is highest over the southeast inland of QLD with higher moisture levels and more organised thunderstorm activity expected as the trough moves through during the late afternoon or evening.
Damaging Winds Risk Friday
Damaging winds are a high risk with an organised batch of storms developing along the trough and progressing towards the coast. Winds could exceed 110km/h with the strongest thunderstorms as they pass through.
Large Hail Risk Friday
Large hail is a high chance with thunderstorms throughout the southeast as the trough passes through, more likely with discrete cells that develop ahead of the trough moving through during Friday afternoon. Giant hail is also possible.
Tornado Risk Friday
Tornados are a very low chance, less than 5% during the afternoon and evening and more likely IF supercells develop.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days
The pressure pattern is still dominated by the low pressure system over the southeast driving the severe weather over the coming 36hrs. Another large cold front will come through the southwest of WA bringing widespread rain and storms through the region with moderate rainfall and gusty winds on Friday with the showery weather to continue through to the weekend. The change will race through the southern states with gusty winds and showers over the weekend into the southeast by Sunday afternoon and follow up waves of low pressure likely to keep the showery weather going for much of next week. The most widespread rainfall looks to be mid to late next week with another low pressure system with the potential for moderate falls. That system unlikely to bring severe weather. The north is hot and humid with pop up showers and storms which may begin to increase in coverage during the middle of next week. It looks cooler than average across southern Australia next week.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days
Moisture is deep and extensive over the south and east and also through southern Australia back into the west with another surge of moisture. We were dominated by dry air last week, this is what the pattern flip looks like. Next week, we see the tussle between the dry and moist air with a wavy flow pattern underway. Each system coming through southern Australia will have the potential to bring spring showers, you can see the most widespread moisture again is early in the period and mid next week, and note how it rotates around the north of the nation and then southeast into the jet stream.
The moisture watch chart shows this and the model spread.
Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Rainfall is quite extensive over the east over the coming 36hrs and the SWLD during the coming 36hrs with two low pressure systems in full control. The north is unsettled with a few showers and storms through this week, with again mixed odds in the modelling, does the moisture come south or east or does it stay contained over northern Australia? This will impact rainfall chances and amounts over the south and east as we move through the coming 10 days. I suspect that next week could turn wetter than what it is leading onto at this time.
A closer look in
GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
You can find more information in the video blog above.
I will have more from 7am tomorrow - I will renew the regional charts in terms of rainfall and the model watch and rainfall once this system in the east is off the board.