QLD - ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY - EASING MID WEEK. HOT WEATHER DEVELOPING.

The severe weather risks are back for Monday with some areas over the southeast and central inland expected to see a trough passing through bringing yet more wild weather.


The thunderstorm activity is expected to develop from morning over inland areas, mainly elevated through southern and central inland regions. These will march towards the coast during the early afternoon with further thunderstorms developing during the day time heating process. Storms may turn severe with all modes of severe weather possible including more large hail and destructive winds. The tornado risk is low.


The storms will flatten out into a rain area before clearing at night. There will be a southerly change move through southeast inland areas during the night and this will lift the storm risks further north for Tuesday before the trough weakens mid week.


Hot weather is expected to develop out west under an upper ridge, that hotter air moving eastwards throughout the week, with a dry second half of the week likely.


A new trough passing through SA will move into NSW during Thursday and then into QLD by Friday and into the weekend with the next round of showers and storms. It is too early to call whether we can expect more severe weather with that feature.


The tropics remain hot and soupy with showers about coastal areas and afternoon showers and thunderstorms inland, some of those could be gusty at times.


Lets take a look


FORECAST CHARTS

Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall continues in the spring time theme which is uneven distribution outside of organised weather events. We have hit and miss thunderstorms for much of this week and this will see like we did last week, some areas copping a hiding and others seeing a whole lot. The tropics will see an increase in showers and thunderstorms through the latter part of this week into the weekend. The weather trending drier elsewhere during central and southern areas before the next trough brings the next chance of rainfall during the weekend.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the morning through interior parts of the state, most of these elevated and moving to the east with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Then during the day the coverage of thunderstorms will increase with scattered severe storms from the central inland districts down to the southeast inland with all modes of severe weather likely. The greatest risk of severe weather is over the southeast inland of the state. Conditions will ease during the evening as the trough lifts north and east.

Large Hail Risk Monday

Large hail is a moderate to high risk during Monday afternoon and evening with a trough deepening through the region. There is sufficient wind shear aloft and colder middle levels with drier air to support large hail development. Remain weather aware tomorrow.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday

Damaging winds are expected to feature with severe thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening from the central interior through to the southeast inland. Some of the straight line winds could exceed 100km/h once again. Isolated tornados are considered a very low chance but not 0.

Flash Flood Risk Monday

Flash flood risk is a moderate chance over the southeast inland extending north to the central interior with storm motion swift, lowering the risk from previous outbreaks. However if thunderstorms train over the same region, there could be some flash flooding in some communities.

DATA

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more - Note as per the video the similar spread of moisture to GFS.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more - the ensemble data is wetter than this for most of the north, central and east.

A closer look in - convective rainfall and the GFS and CMC are much wetter.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation Next 6 weeks

Refer to video for more

More details coming up a little later.




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