It has been another dry and sunny day throughout most of QLD today. The only excitement was that lovely sunrise over the southwest of the state with high cloud drifting through, that is thanks to a parcel of moisture from WA shearing off into the eastern inland.

The forecast, easy, with cooler conditions the further south you go and it will be hotter the further north you go. Though we may see some very warm conditions statewide of Friday coupled with gusty winds with the chance of high to very high fire dangers developing. We are moving into the fire danger period from next month.

That rise in temperature could help set up a strong thermal gradient where we see a battle zone between the hot and cold air play out over NSW. That may begin to interact with modest moisture to produce a cloud band and areas of light rainfall for the eastern states. But the scale of this is yet to be determined.

If that rainfall develops, it may shift north into southern QLD.

Lets look at modelling.

00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The fast flow pattern we know is going to drive the weather for the next few days, each system as it approaches will carry some of warmer and windy weather for southern QLD and elevated fire dangers for parts of QLD and NT. Moisture values may rise sufficiently for inland rainfall over NSW, but we should be blocked from that thanks to an upper high and dry air intrusion A better chance of rainfall may exist over the weekend but we have track that a little further over the coming days to watch trends. Next week GFS keeps the fast flow pattern going.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

No rainfall of any note apart from patchy falls with the system Wednesday and maybe on the weekend, though keeping an eye on moisture building up over the central and northwest inland of the nation.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The Euro still holds a similar pattern as the GFS until the weekend and then we still see the models diverging, with high pressure settling in over the southeast and east next week to take us through to the end of the first week of August. This will see the dry air continue for QLD and the NT, but the GFS as we saw keeps the fast flow going over the south. However I will mention the Euro does show more widespread moisture coming through and the dams the moisture over the northwest of the nation which could provide a better chance of rainfall into mid August.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Not much on offer but keep watching the moisture over the northwest and west of the nation as it is continuing to build further through next week and may just hold the key to bringing the first rain band through eastern and central parts of the country from mid month.

Rainfall largely unchanged for the coming 10 days

More weather to come..

8 views0 comments