QLD AND NT - DRY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH HOT DAYS FOR THE NORTH

Some of that heat may begin to drift south and east into much of QLD through the week, as we see stronger systems moving through the southern parts of the nation, helping to draw that hot dry airmass over the NT into QLD.


Elevated fire dangers are also likely to unfold as we track the fast flow pattern through the south, leading to hotter weather developing for much of the eastern inland of QLD.


The NT will see temperatures getting close to 40C again this week, especially through the Gregory and northwest Barkly.


The next chance of rainfall for QLD is perhaps over the weekend into next week with some signals from the models, the moisture may start to lift north with an upper trough leading to more cloud and light rainfall about.


Lets look at modelling.


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pattern is fast flow again and there is little change to this week which is to be expected. The rainfall chances will be more concentrated through the south of the nation in line with the westerly wind regime, that keeps QLD and the NT dry and warm to hot, the hotter the further north you go. Then GFS brings in a stronger system from Friday into the weekend, with the timing, scale and moisture content of the sequence still to be determined but there could be some decent chances of inland rainfall developing, this extending through NSW and possibly into QLD.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall spread looks largely unchanged for the next 10 days, with dry air and a very stable airmass with an upper high over the tropics extending south plus the sub tropical ridge over the eastern inland areas from central Australia also taking up residence. But there have been murmurings of the weather shifting later in the period with an upper trough floating about so I do think we will see some chopping and changing in the overall modelling so I am assigning a low confidence forecast for inland areas of QLD.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The same old pattern for much of this week with a dry and stable airmass thanks to ridging. The westerly winds are dry so cloud free skies to continue. This is acceptable for this time of year given it is the driest time of the year, no matter what the climate drivers are doing. We may start to see cloud increasing during the latter part of this week into the weekend with areas of light rainfall forming in NSW and SA, that may drift into southern areas of QLD over the weekend, that is a system to watch. The precipitable water values are elevated over the region with an upper trough rotating through. So that could lead to more rainfall opportunities returning to thirsty QLD.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

You can see the rainfall spread developing after a dry 7 days. It is light but this the beginning of the pattern flip that I have been talking about for the past 5 days. We will be monitoring this development throughout the week, while we remain fairly settled and benign.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is light and patchy for the comin 7-10 days for inland areas with the long wave peaking over SA and that wave then sliding through the eastern inland, however parts of the trough hang back over the eastern inland and this could link up with moisture to bring patchy light rainfall later in the week through the weekend. They will be the focus of this week as it could be the catalyst for the pattern flip needed to bring easterly winds back and knock the westerly wind belt south and allowing moisture to return for QLD. Humidity may rise over the NT next week but remaining stable with the upper high.

More information can be found in the National Weather Wraps that are available for consumption supplementing the state based updates. More to come.

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