QLD AND NSW - SHOWERS INCREASING FOR THE EAST COAST.

The pattern flip is allowing the winds to veer back into the east during the coming week, sending a long duration of onshore winds and showery periods for those on and east of the divide through NSW and QLD. Some areas could walk away with moderate to heavy accumulations during the next 7-10 days with this persistent high pressure system over the Tasman Sea, sending in a shallow humid easterly flow leading to the showery weather.


In the short term, we have got a trough passing through the southeast today and this will stall out over SE QLD during Friday and the Wide Bay across the weekend, and this will be the focus for the heavier rainfall in the short term.


High pressure nearby NSW will see the rainfall intensity decrease but the showery weather continue with onshore winds bringing in the light showers across the remainder of the week into the weekend.


Next week as the high moves further towards the southeast of the nation, the winds will likely turn into the northeast and this will send in a much more unstable flow and the showery weather is likely to turn much heavier and more thundery through eastern QLD and northern NSW, more scattered falls further south through NSW and across inland areas to the GDR.


This is a persistence forecast, the weather unlikely to change all that much during the coming week to ten days.


Persistent onshore winds over QLD and NSW will send the focus of rainfall right along the coast and inland areas settle down with drier weather.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is likely to remain coastal from tomorrow with the trough lifting out and drier air moving through the inland. With the southeast to easterly flow from Thursday through the weekend, being nearer to the ridge, the rainfall is likely to remain lighter than further north through QLD. Once the flow turns into the east and then northeast later in the weekend into next week, then we will see the shower coverage increase with a deeper moisture and warmer flow passing into areas on and east of the divide. Some areas could see locally heavy rainfall early to mid next week. At this stage the troughs are expected to be further offshore the east coast leading to the more widespread heavier rainfall opportunities away from the region for now but this could still change. Inland areas expected very little rainfall for a while with a pattern flip which is expected after such a long run of high humidity and record rainfall.

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall should remain heaviest over northern areas of QLD with the monsoon trough over the Cape York, with heavy falls daily. There is the chance of a tropical low forming offshore Cairns and points north which could bring heavy rainfall to coastal areas over the course of the next week. Further south the onshore winds will likely combine with a trough over Central QLD to bring some heavy falls at times through the remainder of this week into the weekend before conditions simmer down next week. The showery weather will remain in place for most of the coast into the end of next week. Inland areas look relatively settled under high pressure.

DATA - Underpinning the forecasts above.

12Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

12Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

18Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More coming up in the state based forecasts this evening.


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