We have got a settled start to the week for much of NSW and southern QLD, ridging finally moving over the state is leading to a quiet start, with light winds, above average temperatures and once we lose the cloud on the east coast of NSW and southeast QLD, the weather will become sunny and warm.
But make the most of it, because with the Southern Annular Mode shifting sharply to the positive phase, the easterly winds are developing later this week leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms.
Another feature to watch is the upper level trough that is forecast to emerge through SA and then into eastern inland could spawn some additional heavy rainfall chances for inland NSW and run through southern QLD. Not all models have supported this at the same time, but all models have had this at one time or the other.
Upper level lows = weather forecasting woes. And we will see that inconsistency and low confidence forecasting continue as a result on this element.
Then we have moisture also running through the westerly winds in the upper levels via the jet stream that could pump additional moisture into the trough sitting over the east which, if there is an upper level low, could result in a heavy and widespread rainfall event with the chance of severe storms and flooding for pockets of the eastern inland.
Severe Weather Watch - Thursday through Sunday
Heavy rainfall may develop with a near stationary trough along the coastal escarpment and along a developing trough through the inland areas of the Upper Western of NSW or eastern areas of SA through to southwest QLD. Anywhere along and to the east of this feature could result in heavy rainfall and severe storms later this week but more likely over the weekend. There are many moving pieces and ingredients in play and this could result in a severe weather event developing if they come together. For now I am keeping the risk at a widespread low to moderate level for now with room for this to increase. If you are living in these zones, please remain weather aware and across the details here as we move through the week as your forecast WILL CHANGE and could become quite dynamic with severe weather potential.
There will be additional information in the state based forecasts this afternoon so stay tuned to that and this forecast will be revisited tomorrow morning.