The weather is expected to turn quite volatile over the southeast third of QLD during Thursday with the passage of a trough leading to an explosion of convection throughout the district during the afternoon and evening.
Some of the storms could be dangerous, with giant hail, intense rainfall, and the odd tornado in the region. This weather is typical for this time of year and occurs at least once or twice a season. My severe weather seasonal outlook pointed to this a few months back so no surprises here.
The weather over the remainder of QLD is expected to be typical, with a humid airmass with scattered showers and thunderstorms but dry over the far northeast tropics and the western inland where the air is more stable.
Friday, we have another round of storms possible for the Wide Bay and Burnett before the dry air sweeps in and settles things down for the weekend.
Over the north the humidity will increase during the weekend as the flow tends more easterly and that easterly flow will spread down the coast. A trough is possible along the coastal fringe and may see showers increase next week for thirsty areas of the coast that have missed out on rainfall.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is expected to be scattered over the southeast of QLD during with an uneven distribution of rainfall likely with some areas getting an absolute whack while other areas getting very little so be aware of that. The rainfall from the thunderstorm mass will leave the coast during Thursday night and another round of thunderstorms is possible on Friday over the east coast. Another batch of storms is possible over northern inland areas during Saturday before we dry out briefly. Inland areas stay mostly dry next week but an easterly flow opens the door for showery periods along the coast with some moderate to heavy falls possible if a trough forms offshore. The humid air will spill over inland areas during next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing about the adjacent inland.
Thunderstorm Forecast QLD and NT - Thursday
Thunderstorms are expected to erupt along a trough passing through southern QLD during Thursday afternoon with the risk of damaging winds, large hail and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. There is also a chance in the purple zone for supercell thunderstorms, where tornados, giant hail and intense flash flooding may occur. The upper atmosphere supports significant convection on Thursday for this region. The areas further, a lot further away from the strong severe weather dynamics will see thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Some of these could have warnings on them as well. The tropics, active for this time of year.
Large Hail Risk Thursday
Large to giant hail is a concern through the southeast inland of QLD during Thursday afternoon as a trough rolls through the region. This atmosphere is a powder keg and we need the sun to certainly help it explode into action during Thursday. The warmer it gets the more volatile the convection and the higher the risk of hail in the purple zone. Giant hail is possible with 1-2 supercells in the region.
Flash Flood Risk Thursday
Flash flooding is possible across pockets of the inland and over the NT during the afternoon and evening. The higher risk sits back over the southeast inland with the passage of a trough. Storms could produce intensive rainfall rates of 100mm/hr plus. With the modest storm motion, that could see some areas clear 50mm in quick time.
Damaging Winds Risk Thursday
Damaging straight line winds are possible if storms orgnaise into a squall line and march towards the coast during the afternoon and evening. Winds could exceed 100km/h in scattered pockets under such circumstances over the southeast. Downbursts with heavy rainfall will see isolated gusty winds over the tropical north.
Tornado Risk Thursday
Discrete thunderstorms developing ahead of any line of thunderstorms over the southeast of QLD could rotate and produce one or two tornados within the moderate risk zone.
DATA - Refer to the video for more details
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days
The pattern is dynamic and thunderstorms are now developing along the trough through western VIC and NSW with moderate to heavy falls. This will continue to unfold tonight for the east. The low pressure system south of the EP in SA is expected to pass over the region tonight. Remain weather aware over the coming 2 days if you are living in QLD, NSW, VIC, SA and TAS. The event should start to wind down from about Saturday with rain easing over VIC and TAS as the last small scale low under the broader upper low moves away. Out west, a strong cold front and low pressure system is expected to bring a large rainfall event with some areas possibly getting over 1 months rainfall with that feature next week with severe weather risks, including damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The tropics producing showers and thunderstorms most afternoons but they could become more isolated as an upper high builds. If that happens, heat levels will go through the roof. Over the east coast of QLD and NSW, showers may increase with a coastal trough next week while the southeast trends warmer and brighter. The change from the west may eventually spill into the southeast bringing a thundery change later next week.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days
We can see the importance of moisture in play right now over the east as the trough works into moist air, this leading to thunderstorm development this evening and overnight over NSW and VIC and a violent day of weather tomorrow. The next major systems on the board to watch over WA early next week with a deep moisture source coming in from the Indian Ocean and another trough on the east coast being fed by onshore winds and deeper moisture. The moisture eventually folding in over the east of the nation the blocking pattern perhaps not as strong than this morning's run of the models. So that could see rainfall chances developing from mid week.
00z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to the video for more details
A closer look in
00z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to video for more details.
More details on the rainfall and model data tonight after 9pm EDT