QLD - A WARM TO VERY WARM DAY FOR THE INLAND - SHOWERS RETURN TO THE COAST THIS WEEKEND.

A dry and warm windy day expected for much of southern QLD today with temperatures increasing above the average during today and into Thursday. The warmer air being drawn down from the northwest, transporting the heat from central parts of the nation into the east.


A very warm day expected today with temperatures through the state, temperatures between 25-31C today.

The weather for the east coast should clear up as the winds veer out of the north and northwest for the coast as the front passes over NSW.


The bulk of the rainfall will stay over NSW with the front. The front will send a pulse of cooler southwest to southeasterly winds through NSW into southern QLD.


That wind change will stall out over the NSW/QLD border this weekend with an easterly flow developing over the east coast. That will send the moisture into the eastern inland of NSW and QLD. Showers at this stage will be isolated over the southern inland of QLD but more scattered along the coast.


The easterly winds will continue to become unstable over the remainder of the coast during next week with showers continuing with a strong high passing through to the Tasman Sea.


The medium term still holding some interesting signals, it is now moving into the 10 day window and the confidence will continue to improve as we get closer to the weekend.


Lets look at modelling


12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The front passes through the southeast today bringing a gusty and warmer northwest flow through the eastern states, with temperatures up to the high 20s and low 30s through QLD, a sign of the times. The moisture is limited to the frontal passage but has a decent rain band on the feature this morning through SA. That front is bringing rainfall into southwest areas of VIC and that will move through the remainder of VIC and into NSW this afternoon and evening. The weather clearing fairly quickly overnight. A cold airmass in the Bight should continue to weaken as it approaches the east but may still bring a few showers and storms to southern SA and VIC tonight. The weather essentially dries from Thursday afternoon with the showers decreasing and the weekend looks dry. The models next week really struggling what to do with the trough out of WA. Some bring it through and link it up with moisture and others say no deal and wash it out in a large high. So the low confidence continues for most of the east and southeast next week.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

Rainfall for the next week is confined to this system moving through the southeast today and clearing out tomorrow. Then high pressure ridges through and keeps the southern inland dry. The east coast will have an easterly wind return and that will feed showers along the SE QLD coast with drier weather for the inland if this is correct. The showers look to increase over the FNQ coast, with that moisture running through northern parts of the nation and then turning south into the interior in the medium term. Speaking about the medium term and that continues to be a dog's breakfast so watch this space, as the modelling will continue to chop and change until Saturday or Sunday when the interesting period moves into the shorter term forecast window.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

Models continue to support the transportation of moisture from northwest to southeast across the nation, the Indian Ocean Dipole continues to support this to repeat itself over the next fortnight. We can see another deeper plume coming in from the northwest next week. More moisture being pumped in via easterly winds over NSW and QLD and the trade winds also brings moisture values above normal through north QLD and the NT. Today the data set here is suggesting the moisture will struggle to link up with the moisture but as I have said the broader data sets are wetter for inland parts of the nation with the bias of wetter weather through northern and eastern Australia mid to late month.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The weather pattern is in good agreement with the GFS for the coming 4 days with the front passing from west to east today and clearing out during Thursday. A high pressure system will ridge in from the west and clear out the inland, while the west turns dry and warmer over the weekend. There may be a weak front that passes through the southwest of the nation during Saturday. Meanwhile an onshore flow will bring showers to the east coast, there is a boundary still expected to set up over the QLD and NSW border which may pull moisture inland, but can it be lifted into more widespread showers? That may be something to watch this weekend and next week. Otherwise the Euro is low confidence next week, like GFS is struggling to piece it all together over the nation with there no consistency in the guidance. So keep patient over the coming days.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall largely confined to the next 2 days with the cold front passing from west to east today with light to moderate falls, however for QLD the weather stays dry with a warm northwest flow. The weather then turns drier for the weekend into next week for most areas, though with the humidity returning with the easterly winds on the east coast, showers will be confined there north of Sydney. Showers may become moderate between Port Macquarie and Noosa and along the FNQ coast as well later this weekend into next week. The weather turns unsettled from this time next week but how that looks remains to be seen. This morning the model has decided to drop any rainfall for the nation and only a cold front passing through WA is expected to bring the next wave of rainfall, drawing in some moisture from the northwest.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The moisture distribution is locked in for the coming 3-4 days across the nation with the cold front passing through with a moisture surge coming through the Indian Ocean, we can see that in real time now with areas of rainfall. Into the weekend the weather turns drier over the southern states but over the east and north moisture increases. The moisture profile increasing further next week with another surge of moisture rotating through WA and being picked up by a cold front, so minimally there could be a repeat system passing through next week similar to what we are seeing this morning over SA. However sometimes you see the models repeating a cycle that is active in real time in the short term, so expect the modelling to change. The moisture is still expected to deepen over the nation.

Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall limited to the coast over the weekend and into next week, otherwise it is dry for a while over the inland. The boundary later in the weekend may squeeze out a few shower for the southern downs and southeast inland. The tropics still look to wake up with some thundery showers about. Leaving the rainfall largely unchanged for the inland with the weather highly uncertain but this forecast will refine over the next few days with some areas seeing an increase in rainfall and some areas turning dry.

More weather details to come today with a medium term forecast due out later this morning with a look at the Indian Ocean influence.


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