QLD - A STALLED BOUNDARY BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.

Otherwise if you are living over the inland, for now it remains settled, but as I keep suggesting the weather is evolving as we go through each data set that comes in, and you will see more rainfall being picked on one run and then that rainfall will be gone the next run.


One area of interest this weekend is the stalled boundary that is dividing the dry air from the more humid air that is sitting through QLD. The issue with lifting that moisture is the ridging that is hanging on for dear life, that is causing the air to be capped and the rising air motion really limited to the coast.....for now.

Next week I am raising one eyebrow at a surface trough that may develop from mid week, and feed off moisture rolling in on easterly winds. The could see showers develop in scattered pockets over the central and southern inland. But this is low confidence, something to watch.

What is of higher confidence is the showery weather that will increase over FNQ and the humidity increasing over northern Australia with some moderate to heavy falls over the Cairns to Cardwell region.


Lets have a look at modelling


00Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pattern is settled for the coming 5 days despite the weak front passing through the southeast states. That will flush the humidity out of the eastern inland and take a trough offshore with it. The weather over the remainder of the inland from WA through SA into the eastern inland will remain dry and seasonal. The weather starts to turn unsettled at this stage on the latest data from Thursday over WA and SA with patchy rainfall and thunder possible as the inland turns warmer in a northwest flow. Then a stronger colder feature develops from WA later next week which could spark a large scale multi state rainfall event and possibly the first storm outbreak over QLD as that feature rolls through, so the shift is starting to appear on the GFS this evening. Now we watch the charts and data to see if there is consistency in the guidance in the coming days. The tropics also turning warmer and more humid over this period.

00z GFS Rainfall for the coming 16 days

Fairly dry over much of the inland for the coming 7 days with no rainfall expected. A few showers and drizzle for the coastal areas from later this weekend and next week before that clears. The next major rainfall event for the nation comes later next week into the following weekend. Otherwise a trough before that may bring some showers to southern SA and VIC mid next week, and showery weather for pockets of the east coast remains fair.

00z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

The PW anomalies again shifting away from the drier trend from this morning, back wet, with the modelling now supporting multiple rainfall events for the nation from later next week. Some of that may turn heavy with a colder shift through SA and into the southeast states. Moderate rainfall also possible for WA from this time next week. Over QLD, moisture rolling onshore may bring up rainfall chances from later this weekend through next week, that moisture surging west and south through the eastern inland of the nation could link up with that front, with a large scale rainfall event developing next weekend for SA, VIC and NSW then into eastern QLD with storms possible. Another strong system can be seen in the outlook for the west with more moisture surging in from the Indian Ocean. Be interesting to see if that holds up tomorrow morning.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The pattern unchanged from this morning, a settled spell for the nation is expected through next week with showers fairly coastal over the south and east of the nation for the most part but even there the rainfall light and patchy, FNQ is quite a lot wetter though under the influence of trade winds. The weather turns more dynamic at the end of the run, a little later than GFS but they are in agreement, next weekend is where we see the weather change. How far north that trough or low comes remains to be seen.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

The inland essentially dry for the coming 7 days or so for most of the nation, with coastal areas seeing the most of the precipitation. Next week the rainfall will return to the inland of WA first starting mid next week and the southeast may start to see more rainfall developing next weekend. There is a low chance of this moving into QLD at this time.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The Euro has reintroduced moisture this evening in the data sets, where this morning it was drier. So that flip flopping will continue, but the good signal is that it has come into agreement with most global models suggesting a change developing from the west later next week that spreads through the east. How much inland rainfall develops is not clear but there are all possibilities of widespread inland rainfall with the moisture increasing.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Inland rainfall not showing up yet in the modelling despite the moisture over the region, the ridging in place keeping things settled for now, however there are signals as you can see above for the showers to return over inland areas later next week with a higher chance of rainfall sweeping the state during the last week of August. You only need one system to bring seasonal rainfall for the region during August, and that could be the case this year as we enter a more robust wetter period for September onwards.

Climate Update tomorrow for the remainder of August, a look at the National Severe Weather Outlook Part 5 tomorrow and a Wet Season Outlook for 2021/22.


If you live in the tropics, there will be daily outlooks and forecasts starting soon for north QLD and NT through the Kimberly.


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