The weather is expected to remain dry, sunny and seasonal with temperatures coming down tomorrow for southern areas but overall, a welcome respite from high humidity and heavy rainfall is with us for a while now. A chance to dry out.
By later this week, an easterly wind returns and this may feed a weak trough inland with isolated showers and thunderstorms returning to southeast areas, but no severe weather expected.
The weather is expected to turn more humid over the northern tropics with widespread showers developing for coastal areas and thunderstorms over Cape York. The showers also expected to continue down the QLD coast with the onshore winds, but with little instability about, the weather is expected to remain light.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is lean for the coming 3 days which is to be expected after such a large weather system has moved through. A southwest to westerly wind is also dry and keeping rainfall chances down. Now as we move into Wednesday or Thursday, onshore winds may feed that weak trough to produce mainly light falls, but nothing too widespread or heavy. The air is remaining more stable than not. As we get into the weekend, the showery weather over the north may begin to increase with some moderate falls daily. The air more humid as well as the return of seasonal weather unfolds. Inland areas remaining mostly dry for now, but rainfall chances are likely to increase beyond this period to finish the month.
DATA - Refer to video for more details
00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution -Next 10 Days
The pressure pattern begins to relax from Monday with the high over WA moving towards the east and we finally see the weather turn more stable over the southeast and east with easing showers and winds. Temperatures will remain below average for the first half of this week but the weather out west will be opposite. Warm to start but then tending cooler. The tropics hot and dry, could be some records once again (which plays well into the nation again turning more unstable into the medium term). A trough develops over the interior of WA with that system moving into the east during mid week, and finds better moisture rotating around a high, thanks to easterly winds developing. This trough will deepen over the latter part of this week, but part will pass through the southeast on Friday, another part will hang back over WA and SA through the weekend. It is tricky to pin down which feature will bring more rainfall. The GFS shows more rainfall in the second feature where the Euro has better falls on both systems for eastern WA, SA, VIC and NSW. The Euro below is much wetter and I am not quite drawing these totals yet but it is something to watch. Regardless the nation turns more unsettled and humid as advised last week, from around the 19-20th of November and persist to the end of the month. Also the Euro does not quite have the tropical weather offshore northern Australia like the GFS and CMC so again that feature may be something to watch as well this week.
00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days
The drier airmass over the nation will continue to dominate through mid week, but notice the moisture returns over WA and again over northern and eastern Australia. The weather will turn more humid as we go through the latter part of the week and that is thanks to an injection of moisture passing from the Indian Ocean into the western and central interior. The east will see easterly winds pump moisture into the eastern inland and the tropics also getting more active. Overall the nation is turning more humid and building up to levels we saw in the past 10 days. So again we have a small window of drier air and less rainfall, but it is not lasting long.
00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days
The PW values are below average. The moisture values will remain low as we track through the coming 3-4 days but the moisture values flip rapidly and by next weekend, we will be back to many areas in seasonal conditions but a tropical feeling with more rain and thunderstorms impacting large parts of southern and eastern Australia and the tropics. These moisture values will continue to increase over the back half of the month.
00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for more details on short and medium term rainfall
A closer look in - this forecast will change rapidly this week - so stay up to date.
More details coming up after 9pm tonight on all things models and the rainfall potential.