That said, there are some signals for rainfall to come back in the medium term, and will that make it into the east?

We will get to that below but before then we have got a significant period of dry weather for the south and west of the state. That said it is still seasonal, and during this period, you will note the humidity values increase during this week.

The boundary that has been floating around the eastern inland is still with us this morning, but the cloud and areas of spitty rainfall will move further east today. Low cloud further north is expected to break up this afternoon.

A few showers over the coastal areas are possible mid to late week with the easterly winds becoming mildly unstable, the showers more frequent and heavy over the FNQ coast with areas of rain at times between Cairns and Cardwell in the trade winds.

The weekend, warmer and becoming windy over the south ahead of frontal weather over VIC and southern NSW.

A stronger system is expected to approach the south and east during the early part of next week which will eventually roll through the eastern inland lifting rainfall chances.

12Z GFS Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 16 days

The pattern again largely set for this week, with most of the inland dry under dry air as the the high pressure takes full control. The weather will start to shift for the east coast later this week with a few showers developing as the east or northeast flow develops with the high moving towards NZ. The first in a series of fronts will sweep the southwest of the nation, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms to WA, that front moving onto SA during Thursday seeing temperatures rise well above the average during the latter stages of this week. A second stronger front is expected to move over the southwest on Thursday into Friday and that front sweeping through the southern states during this weekend with areas of rain or showers with some thunder about. Light to moderate rainfall. Then we have that larger scale system developing during early next week with again the modelling chopping and changing the scale and speed of the system BUT it still has it now and all models see the system, just a matter of settling on a solution, which I will talk about more later this morning.

12z GFS Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Not much on offer for the coming 5 days, a few drizzly spits over the southeast and east coast. The wettest part of the nation this week will be over the SWLD with the fronts starting to stand up and over western TAS where the showery weather will continue for most of this week. Another pocket of wet weather can be found under the trade winds over FNQ. Then the wet weather begins to spread out over SA, VIC and NSW later this week into the weekend with light falls inland, moderate along the coast. A stronger system is expected to develop during early next week with more widespread rainfall opportunities. I will have more on this system later this morning.

12z GFS Precipitable Water Anomalies next 16 days

PW Values are largely unchanged for the coming 10 days, though values ahead of the system coming in on Friday and Saturday over the southeast states could see showers increase a little more than what is being indicated right now. The moisture over the eastern seaboard is expected to filter inland with the northeast to easterly winds freshening. That will help feed the system moving in early next week over SA and Central Australia with more widespread cloud and rainfall possible in about a week's time. The models diverge on what happens after this with the Euro keeping the moisture in place for the end of the month, the GFS today sweeps the moisture out. They swap back and forth...that means we will have to wait further for guidance on the system for next week.

12z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Very similar to GFS with no real change in the conditions for the week ahead so the forecast you have received is likely to remain unchanged. The only area of difference is the deeper moisture coming through on the front passing out of WA through SA into the southeast states later this week, which could see more cloud and the showers extend inland to southern NSW. That may persist into Saturday as well as the moisture stays in place. This model also continues to support the rainfall event next week.

12z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall light on for the southeast this week, showers increasing over the southwest of the nation with moderate falls from mid week, the moderate rainfall is expected to be found over western TAS and the FNQ coast. The showers increasing over the southeast is with two fronts, one on Friday and another due on Saturday with light falls inland though heavier falls are expected further inland with a milder change. Next week, we can see the low pressure befalling through the southeast states with moisture limited, that is the difference between the GFS and Euro hence why rainfall coverage is less.

12z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

The PW values are largely unchanged for the week, for areas over WA, keeping an eye on the moisture sweeping in from the northwest via the Indian Ocean, that may seed the system coming into the southeast. You can see some cloud already over inland parts of the nation associated with higher PW values this morning. That may sit in place until the front picks it up during the latter parts of this week bringing more widespread rainfall. Another front over the weekend comes with another shot of average moisture levels for southern Australia with scattered showers. Moisture over the east coast will run across the north of the country, with two waves to watch during the weekend into next week, at this stage the moisture is out of phase with the long wave trough that kicks off a larger scale system due in early next week.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Lean rainfall expectations for inland areas for the coming 7 days which has been well modelled well in advance. We will see an uptick in showers for the coast and tropical areas as humidity starts to rebuild in northeast winds, waiting for the high to push out further east mid to late this week. Frontal weather to the south will draw in warm and gusty conditions, that could work in our favour as a stronger system approaches this time next week seeing a clash of the airmasses and humidity combining to bring up rainfall chances for inland areas. So expect this forecast chart to factor that in if the modelling continues to strengthen this signal. Will also monitor the tropical weather starting to turn more unsettled which could play out well for QLD if it can be drawn southeast ahead of the system this time next week.

I will have the two week forecast updated this morning and clearly the focus of that will be the stronger system rolling through the east from this time next week.

8 views0 comments