Very similar to the NSW wrap where rainfall signals are largely unchanged with a significant July rainfall event expected to unfold during Friday and into the weekend, bringing the best winter rainfall in years to many over the inland and along the coast, after what has been a wet end to June along the east coast.

Lets have a look at the rainfall for the coming 10 days first.

Rainfall for the coming 10 days - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.

The rainfall is starting to lift out of the southwest and west as we get a better handle of where the trough is igniting the rainfall tonight. On and east of that point is where rainfall will develop over the coming days, with thunderstorms tending scattered, bringing locally heavy falls to parts of the southern and central inland Thursday and Friday, then contracting to the coast this weekend, while the inland turns dry. Weather settles and turns dry early next week.

Thunderstorm will be scattered and you can find out more here for QLD

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.

A colder look at the bullseye, where I believe the heaviest of the rainfall will occur, though tonight I have added heavier rainfall north of here, which I WILL focus on tomorrow if that signal strengthens. I have ironed out the rainfall of up to 40mm further east through QLD with thunderstorms more scattered throughout the area from Cunnamulla through Charleville and up to about Longreach east. If you get thunderstorms, you will get heavier falls than 25mm. But generally falls of 15-25mm is fair for much of the inland with general shower coverage. But with storms about, your number will vary.

Lets have a look at the raw data sets tonight, Euro and GFS.

Euro Deterministic 00z Run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.

I posted this to show the potential for those heavy falls developing over Central QLD with the trough lingering and stalling thanks to the big upper high over NZ. This could pose a decent threat for flash flooding if it verifies. Otherwise general rainfall throughout providing the best July rainfall in years for QLD.

GFS Ensemble 00z Run - Rainfall for the next 15 days - Valid Wednesday 30th of June 2021.

Generally soaking falls over the coming event with average rainfall for the month of July likely to be achieved in many locations, with this being the driest month of the year for QLD. Some heavy falls are possible amongst the soaking rainfall. Note the moisture build up in the second week of July. The Indian Ocean waking up? Find out more here

This is a promising sign for large areas of QLD for the coming months. If you have missed out and may miss out again from this event, there is hope for a better 6 months coming up with the climatic drivers in place to bring us all a good soaking at some point through spring at the latest.

If you need more weather information - email me at for more details about tailored forecasts.

31 views0 comments