PIN THE UPPER LOW ON THE FORECAST CHART!!!

It is another day and another set of solutions - making forecasting the next week quite impossible given the major shifts in guidance once again overnight.


Weather Matters rainfall forecasts for southern and southeast Australia below carry LOW CONFIDENCE.





So I won't take long - lets have a look..


Euro Model - Accumulated rainfall for the next 10 days valid 30th April 2021

GFS 18z model run for the next 10 days valid April 30th 2021

CMC 12z model run for accumulated rainfall over the next 10 days valid April 30th 2021

The placement, timing, intensity and track of the upper low, whether it forms fully or not will determine how much rainfall falls where and for how long.


No one knows at this time. You can see from previous posts over the last 5 days all the different solutions.


So the forecast confidence remains low, including on my rainfall forecasts. The rainfall forecasts will be adjusted appropriately to cover the changes tonight.


Here is the upper air flow pattern from the Euro 12z run at 500mb this morning.

More details to come tonight.