ONE RAIN EVENT FOR THE EASTERN INLAND THEN THE WESTERLY WIND BELT TAKES OVER.

Rainfall has been very hard to pick later this week over inland parts of NSW with a trough and low forming through the eastern inland of NSW as a trough rolls through a moist atmosphere and deepens as it passes through to the east.


The position of the trough determines the rainfall and spread of that rainfall, the depth and scale of the trough determines how heavy the falls are and whether thunderstorms get involved.


The speed of the system also determines how big the totals are. That is why the charts and rainfall outputs have been divergent and likely to continue that way.


But a trained eye can spot the trend and contrast that with the upper air profile, and while the models are continuing to throw all sorts of numbers around later this week, there is a bullseye area now identified.


12z Euro Rainfall and Surface Pressure Pattern for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

There is good agreement now to move the system more towards the east than south, which is where the Euro was heading yesterday, but the truth between the extremes yesterday is likely to be the outcome and a more southeast movement through the eastern inland is likely rather than a straight east or south movement. Next week good agreement on the rainfall confined to the southern parts of the nation but keep watch over the Indian Ocean.

12z GFS Rainfall and Surface Pressure Pattern for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Good agreement with Euro with a wet burst for the northern inland of NSW contracting quickly east then the rainfall confined to southern parts of the nation right through to mid to late month with a fast flow pattern, but again keep watch over the Indian Ocean.

Rainfall spread shows the modelling coming into better agreement in the short term and are in reasonable agreement for next week.


Placement and track of the low during Thursday and Friday.


GFS 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

It is a good way of displaying the movement of rainfall over the south and east of the nation during the coming 10 days and I think the models are now agreeing on the two systems over the coming 10 days which will provide the next batches of rainfall. Between the two, most areas should see 5mm of rainfall this week but many a lot more.

Euro 12z run - Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Similar spread of rainfall, though the GFS is stronger with the rainfall spread next week with the front and shortwave passing through the southeast with some heavier falls for parts of SA and northwest VIC which would be welcome for there, lighter falls from that spread through southern and central NSW.


Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

Rainfall through the eastern inland north of about Orange to Sydney will occur later Thursday through Friday before clearing. Dry weather over the southern areas until about Sunday when showers start to develop over the southeast of SA and VIC and that extends northwards next week with a strong front likely to bring light to moderate rainfall for those on and west of the divide through southern and central NSW and for most of VIC and SA while the northern inland of NSW and QLD turns dry.

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

A closer looks at who is currently in and who is out of the heaviest rainfall for later this week....this will continue to refine!

Rainfall for the next 10 days - Valid Tuesday 6th of July 2021.

This rainfall likely to develop from later Sunday through next week with a dry week now likely as the eastern inland system moves north of this region, perhaps a little rainfall up towards the central west Friday but that is about it.


Next week it is all about the westerly wind belt bringing up the wintry weather through the coastal areas first before that contracts northwards to impact Agricultural areas of Australia, I will have a better look at that later this morning.



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