A much drier period establishing through the NT with a trough over the Top End weakening and drier air surging northwards through the sub tropics into the deep tropics, quite unusual for February. That will lead to a period of build up conditions for the north and temperatures on the climb.

For the central and southern areas of the NT, good news for flood impacted areas, dry weather for the coming 10 days and temperatures on the climb which will assist in drying the Outback. There is no rainfall expected during this period and a dry hot spell to resume.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall tending below average across the guidance and therefore my forecast follows. Even the thunderstorm coverage returning to the below average values with isolated heavier falls north of Adelaide River but south of there, hot and mostly dry. The rainfall may begin to increase in about a week from now over northern areas with the approach of a Rossby Wave from the east, this could introduce more instability and an increase in rainfall. For now though, we are back to build up conditions for a good part of this week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms will remain mainly confined to the Top End with isolated heavy falls and gusty winds but no severe weather is expected. Mostly stable weather for areas to the south as you can see with a large clearance of that humidity.

DATA - Refer to video for further information on the daily breakdown in the short and medium term.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pressure pattern once again largely unchanged from this morning so the persistence forecast continues. You can catch more in the daily breakdown, but at this stage the low confidence forecast strap continues.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The dry airmass looks set to reign for the coming week at least before we see conditions slowly recover over northern and western Australia and this spreads east and southeast in the medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

A closer look in - the forecast is of low confidence and I cannot stress anything beyond about the 7 day mark is likely to change. This is well below average rainfall for the NT, and would equate a 1/10 year dry spell at this time of year.

Moisture very much below average NT wide.

More details coming up from 8am EDT. The weather remains very quiet so until there are themes in the medium term that are gathering pace around rainfall, I will introduce the rainfall and model posts. For now there is too much divergence. Tomorrow is Climate Update Tuesday. So look out for that.

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