NT - UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT WITH MODERATE RAIN FOR THE SOUTH.

A trough amplifying through the southern districts is expected to bring widespread cloud and showers and thunderstorms through from Saturday afternoon and evening, with areas likely to see another 10-30mm of rainfall after 10-20mm fell through pockets of the south during the week just gone.


Over the north, scattered showers and a few storms possible with the daytime heating process. Some areas could get a nice dump of rainfall while other areas miss out.


One thing it will be is humid throughout.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to be patchy over the north but as usual, in random airmass thunderstorms, who gets what remains to be seen each day, but by week's end, most areas should see 20-30mm of rainfall. Over the south another band of rainfall will move through over the weekend with moderate rainfall, which may extend back into the Barkly with storms also producing some isolated higher totals. The weather clears the south and central areas during the week with a new high passing in. The north will remain unsettled from Elliot north with the usual afternoon fireworks.

The south looking unsettled with scattered showers and thunderstorms for a number of days this week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

The thunderstorm activity is expected to become scattered throughout during Saturday afternoon and evening, with gusty winds and heavy rainfall possible over the far southeast. Thunderstorms over the northern Top End could also be gusty at times with brief heavy rainfall. Most of the NT should not have severe thunderstorms at this stage but will be reviewed in the morning.

A broader view - thunderstorms increase over the state in a broad band from the northwest to southeast.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are expected to break out over the western and southwestern areas of QLD later in the day if not at night, with the main activity expected over SA and the NT. The activity spreading east to be over much of the southwest and west by nightfall. This activity spreads east through much of the state during Sunday.

Damaging Winds Risk Saturday

There is a moderate risk of damaging winds with thunderstorms that develop along a trough developing over Central Australia during the afternoon and evening. The risk will graduate east. Raised dust is also possible with reduced visibility

DATA

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The surface pressure pattern is dominated by high pressure at the moment but watch the developing trough tomorrow and the appearance of low pressure taking over as we go through the outlook period as with heat levels increasing and that means heat rises and destablises the atmosphere. This will be the theme as we track through the weeks and months ahead. Now the first trough is to pass through over the weekend into next week bringing areas of rainfall with thunderstorms about. Rainfall confidence is low and refer to all the charts as low confidence over the east. For the west a strong cold front is expected to sweep the region, the major impact will be well below average temperatures for much of next week. Out of that front a second system forms and the forward motion of this system approaching the east is much quicker tonight on all guidance so there is some chance it could be absorbed into the first feature enhancing the rainfall over NSW and QLD. Over the north the tropics are set to fire, more isolated over northern WA and Cape York. Another trough and inland rain and storms is being progged for next weekend spreading from the NT through SA but that also carries low confidence. It is spring time in Australia.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The guidance on moisture is unchanged nationally from this morning, the issue is the placement of systems that lifts this moisture into areas of rain and thunderstorms. The tropics are turning soupy and that moisture seeps south once again later next week into the following weekend. The west stays under relatively dry air for now, but a pulse of moisture may approach from the Indian Ocean and invigorate a west coast trough just outside of this period.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Rainfall confidence is low nationwide, away from the southwest of WA where one system is expected to bring light falls and then conditions dry out. So pay attention to forecasts and do not get caught up on the data tonight, we are likely to see some further adjustments due to timing issues with the secondary system plus once the trough intialises in real time and the low forms in real time, then guidance improves.

A closer look in

Northern Top End.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to Video for more information

More weather information coming up later this evening with the model wrap and rainfall after 9pm

0 views0 comments