But becoming breezy through southern areas during Wednesday night and Thursday, could see the return of raised dust for some of those southern border areas and across the APY Lands. The weather dry for a while from south of about Elliot.
Up north, the moisture is snapping back with a trough which is weak, and sitting along the base of the Top End. The trough is expected to remain slow moving and indiscernible for a period when an upper high forms next week, but re-emerge once again in about a week seeing the thunderstorm activity wax and wane as it should over the north with the build up.
One thing for certain, the weather is going to be absolutely foul and humid over the north.
Lets take a look.
Rainfall Next 10 days
Rainfall has contracted back to the northern third of the NT and will likely contract further north by the end of the week. There could be some strong storms with gusty winds during Wednesday through Friday afternoon before the coverage of showers and storms decrease over the weekend. Next week the weather mostly dry NT wide before we see the upper high weaken and shift east, opening the door for more numerous showers and storms developing, these will then begin to spread down the Stuart Highway towards Tennant and then Alice Springs at the end of the run as the temperatures soar.
A broader look at the unsettled weather returning down the Stuart Highway next week with the high heat.
Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday
Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, some strong and gusty at times though no damaging winds are expected just yet. Falls of 20-40mm possible with thunderstorms, and these will be creeping closer to the Darwin and Palmerston areas during the latter part of this week.
00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days
The main feature is most certainly the low pressure system passing through the south and southeast this week with a leading trough leading to severe and even violent weather potential Thursday and Friday for NSW and QLD. The peak of the weather in terms of storms is Thursday. Rain heavy at times over VIC could lead to areas of flooding over southern areas, mainly east of Melbourne and West Gippsland. South Australia likely to see a decent amount of showery weather Thursday with gales as the low passes over. The west is warm and dry and the north is under the influence of deep moisture with scattered showers and afternoon thunderstorms. From Sunday the weather over the nation turns quiet with all low pressure moving away and upper high pressure taking over. The west is where the action will be next week with a band of rain and strong winds along an unusual strong cold front and trough passing by. That system will help to lift temperatures well above average across the south and east.
00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days
No real change from this morning with a deep moisture supply lifting off the east coast but some being left behind ahead the next system coming into SA helping to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms. The weather over SA and VIC turning colder and the airmass drier with a southwest to southerly flow wrapping into the low bringing in cold air from the Southern Ocean. The weather over in the west warm and dry before the next large moisture infeed from the Indian Ocean which is expected to bring above average rainfall. The northern tropics humid and trending even more humid next week with an upper high suppressing rainfall for a period.
00z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to video for more information on rainfall.
A closer look in.
00z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to video for more details on rainfall
I will have a full wrap on the models and rainfall tonight after 9pm EDT. It is a significant risk of severe weather over vulnerable crops during Thursday. Remain weather aware in the east. But pay attention into the WA weather because that warmth is heading east next week.