The weather is continuing its slow hard grind to the cooling phase of the monsoon. The build up is expected to be quite nasty this year in terms of the heat and humidity being above average and that continues to be the trend as we track through the coming weeks.

This week no different, showers and thunderstorms continue for the north with hit and miss falls, that uneven distribution of rainfall that is so frustrating to watch will continue.

The south could see a few isolated showers and high based thunderstorms tonight and again on Monday with a weak upper trough. Some gusty winds are possible.

Then next week moisture is likely to increase from the north and west with the high heat for southern areas expected to bring up the chance of showers and thunderstorms once again.

Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall hit and miss, the old song and dance with moderate to heavy falls for some and not much for others. Some rainfall will also begin to develop for southern areas next week with scattered falls expected for the last week of the month. Some of the storms could produce some heavy falls for some outback areas and nothing for others as the signals of what is to come this spring and summer continues to unfold.

A broader view of the NT

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

No real change to the distribution of thunderstorms over the NT and surrounds with the better coverage over the northern parts of the Top End along the seabreeze front. Some elevated thunderstorms are possible about inland areas from the Barkly down into the southeast with some gusty winds and not much rainfall.


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Things are settling down from this week over the interior which will extend into western parts of NSW and most of SA with an upper high setting up camp. We are seeing a strong low pressure system and cold front coming into SWLD of WA which will drive a large rainband over the state during Tuesday with that system running into a blocking pattern in the east mid week. That blocking pattern will set up camp from tomorrow with scattered showers and thunderstorms on the trough passing in from the west and then sitting offshore during mid week. That trough may form into a low bringing coastal showers and thunder through mid week. Then the remnants of the trough will pass from SA in dry fashion and hit moisture over the east during later this week with another round of showers and thunderstorms developing for NSW and QLD. The north is expected to be unsettled with widespread showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls. That moisture will slowly seep through the west of the nation on the western face of the upper high over SA keeping the moisture over WA with storms developing.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The moisture is expected to deepen over western parts of the nation with a strong cold front passing through from the Indian Ocean with a deep moisture supply. The moisture is expected to thin out as we track the system through the BIght and into the southeast, unfortunately you can see the block in the Tasman Sea deflecting the moisture south of the mainland. Over the east and north, deeper moisture will pool as the trades return and the tropical northeast to easterly flow establishes. The weather over the west will also become more humid as the moisture travels west and into the southwest of the state through next week. You can pick up the upper high over SA ingesting the dry air from the Tasman Sea as the low pressure that forms later this week moves off to NZ leaving a mild and dry airmass under the high keeping the eastern inland quiet for now.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

As expected, you can track the dry slot over inland SA and western NSW as the upper high sits over the eastern inland with not much rainfall expected. The coastal areas of northern and eastern Australia will see the bulk of the rainfall from showers and thunderstorms. The bigger rainfall event is over the southwest of the nation with a strong cold front and low pressure system drawing in a deep moisture load into a cold front, producing the most widespread rainfall. Otherwise the rainfall will return to the southeast and eastern inland of the nation towards the end of the month.

A closer look in.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more at the top of the page.

More details to come tomorrow morning from 7am.

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