The weather has been locked in a stagnant pressure pattern with the La Nina waning and the easterly winds over the nation producing record rainfall in the east.

In the absence of the MJO moving through northern Australia in recent weeks have resulted in a drier picture for the tropics with only scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. While it is not unusual for March, it is uncommon when La Nina is waning, we should see more rainfall for the north at this time of year. But the weather patterns have been rather stuck in recent weeks.

For the south, the stagnant pressure pattern has seen that support the dry and hot weather to continue with very little moisture to work with.

The weather looks to remain unchanged for atleast the next 7 days. There may be an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the north next week but otherwise the south is dry and stable.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains very much confined to the north of the NT where the moisture is deeper and the airmass unstable. A trough is likely to form over the Top End across the weekend and become slow moving near Katherine, driving further showers and storms next week. The weather south of Elliot looks to remain dry and stable with temperatures moving above average given the dry airmass in place. That will reduce the rainfall chances for a while which is normal in the absence of the tropical weather moving through the north of the NT.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms continue to follow the same routine of developing during mid to late afternoon, orgnaising into squalls and heading west bound through the Top End and then into the Kimberly. Damaging winds are possible.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

Damaging winds is a low chance across the region as we track thunderstorms through the Top End. The higher risk will sit back over in the Kimberly.

DATA - Refer to video for more information on the short and the medium term.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The latest data coming in off the GFS is amplifying the moisture a little over inland NSW and QLD as well as dipping it into the ACT and through northern VIC from the weekend into next week ahead of a larger trough coming out of SA mid next week. I am not so sure on that idea, but there will be showers and thunderstorms about. I am not convinced on the coverage being that widespread but will watch trends. For the east coast, onshore winds will drive showers onto the NSW and QLD coasts at times through this period. The tropics looking fairly unsettled with showers and storms increasing in coverage with the MJO starting to emerge in the Indian ocean and then rotating around the north of the nation at the end of the month potentially and into April. The west coast will see a few showers and thunderstorms as a result of the trough nearer the coastal areas this weekend before clearing inland but there may be better rainfall chances as we move into the medium term if moisture can be drawn out of a tropical feature running through the Indian Ocean.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Certainly seeing the drier air filter throughout much of the south and southeast with some areas to feel that more likely throughout the overnight periods with clearer skies and temperatures will be likely able to cool and heat more efficiently. So more typical weather for Autumn is likely. The weather over the northern tropics remaining seasonal with the humid air remaining in place. The east coast still impacted by heavy low level moisture but over the inland of the east, moisture levels are coming down, they will pick up again through the weekend and next week but nowhere near it has been. The weather out west very dry, the drier air being trapped the for days will likely continue for a while, but with a southerly change developing this weekend, low level moisture may return to coastal areas bringing cloud and drizzle patches following storms inland. If the MJO develops next week then we may see more moisture building up over the Indian Ocean which could be propelled across the nation. But it is conditional.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - refer to video for further analysis for those needing more information on what is next in terms of rainfall for the region.

More details coming up with all models and the rainfall information after 8pm EDT tonight. See what the next few weeks brings us. Also refer to the 6 week outlook for my take on that information and more.

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