The tropics are back to life after a dry week with plenty of sunny hot days. That is the last of those until about April with a wet season vibe in the air.

The humidity over the southern and central districts is also expected to increase and this will lead to more showers and thunderstorms developing. The weather not as wet for as long as earlier in the month, but certainly follow up falls to add to the record rainfall we have observed in recent weeks.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to become more scattered and regular over the northern districts with moderate to heavy falls clearly with thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. We are moving into the season where we also can expect overnight and morning storms as well with equally heavy falls mainly over coastal areas too. The rainfall becoming more scattered towards Elliot as a trough deepens over the Base of the Top End.

A broader look at the NT

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

A very high chance of thunderstorms occurring within 25km of a given point during the afternoon and evening, with the risk running down the western border as a trough pulls moisture south into WA and SA. Storms may be gusty and heavy and may reach severe thresholds. Slightly more stable over the eastern Top End.

A broader look across the NT.

Damaging Winds Risk Monday

Damaging winds the main concern for Monday over the northern Top End and extending southwest towards the Lake Argyle region. The winds may reach 100km/h out ahead of thunderstorms and with organised squalls racing west or southwest.

Flash Flood Risk Monday

Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding over parts of the western Top End and through to the Kimberly.


00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pattern remains dynamic and unstable and volatile for many regions over the coming 10 days. The forecast confidence therefore remains low with such a large amount of moisture, high degree of instability and low pressure also working through the moisture producing thunderstorms, the placement of the worst of the weather is hard to pin down. There is no doubt that the west will see conditions ease with that low pressure system lifting east into SA then into the eastern states, the rainfall and thunderstorms increasing over SA, VIC, NSW and QLD for the second half of this week. Where the confidence falls down is in who gets what and when. So that is going to be the frustrating part for many this week, with headers sitting still and a lot of water coming down in the east and potential for more. The northern tropics also looking unsettled with high levels of moisture and the return of colder air aloft, supporting showers and thunderstorms. There is a high chance that parts of NSW and southern QLD does not evade the moist air through this period meaning a wet start to December is likely. The west remaining hot in persistent easterly winds.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Deep moisture still remains in place for much of this week leading to elevated rainfall chances for many. But once we get into the latter part of this week, SA and VIC should return back into dry air and this will support a few days of dry settled skies with southeast winds. Can the humidity be swept out of NSW and QLD? Not so sure on that, which may pose a problem for those needing dry clearer days of weather. It is not looking as promising in these regions, especially the further north and east you go. WA dries out from Tuesday.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details and to the post after 9pm EDT.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more details and to the post after 9pm EDT.

More on the rainfall after 9pm EDT.

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