NT - TROPICAL LOW DEEPENING, SEVERE WEATHER RISKS INCREASING FOR THE NORTH.

The weather for the south though, quiet and remaining mostly dry for the outlook at this time. So for now the focus is on the north.


The tropical low is continuing to deepen this evening about 200km west of Darwin and is to stay slow moving through the next 24 hours before adopting an easterly track for a period which may bring it through the Top End bringing an increase to the already showery and stormy weather that is present.


Winds may turn squally, mainly with the bands of showers and thunderstorms that roll through rather than strong and squally gradient winds but this may change very quickly.


For now a wet and monsoonal few days for the Top End with above average rainfall potential but the rainfall gradient is very tight and areas such as Katherine may only see a few showers until next week so it is looking more coastal.


The tropical low is expected to stall once again somewhere near the north coast of the NT before turning south and then southwest through the Top End bringing up the chance of heavy rainfall leading to flooding for inland areas and then move away into the Kimberly dragging in the monsoonal flow to keep the showery weather going over the north.


So an active week on the way.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to turn quite heavy over the coming 24hrs over much of the northwest with flooding possible in some locations as the low pressure system wafts towards the coast. There is a chance of this system turning into a weak cyclone but the impact the same, heavy rainfall with local flooding. The weather will turn drier for a period over the remainder of the tropical north in advance of the low turning southwards towards Arnhem Land and then back through the Daly and Gregory with widespread rainfall continuing with the flood potential. The northwest flow will then get pulled in over the north bringing the chance of further heavy rainfall and windy weather. So an active and wet period lining up the Top End.

Thunderstorm Risk Friday

Thunderstorms remaining a very high chance with the tropical low strengthening and sending out strong waves of monsoonal weather. Squalls over 100kmh possible with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding possible.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Flash flooding is a very high chance about extreme coastal areas of the northwest Top End and through the western Top End as well. This may impact areas from the Tiwi Islands through to the Coburg Peninsula later.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

Squalls of up to 100km/h possible about coastal areas during the afternoon and evening as the tropical low strengthens offshore and if the system begins to adopt an easterly track, we could see the wind threats expand further east.

Tropical Cyclone Watch - Next few days

A deep tropical low is forecast to remain stationary over the Timor Sea west of Darwin during the coming 24hrs or so with strong squally showers and thunderstorms to increase in the next few days. If this system adopts and easterly track, then we could see enhanced rainfall leading to flooding and damaging winds expanding. The system is not expected to develop into a major cyclone at this time.

This is the latest general guidance for the system taking the blend of the models, but for now the confidence on the track of the tropical low remains very low and so be weather aware. The system could still move away from the Top End towards the Kimberly.

DATA - Refer to video for more information


GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pressure pattern remains dynamic and the main areas that I will repeat need pointing out. The potential cyclone development over northern Australia, especially the feature off Darwin carries some high concern of severe weather. The east coast still expected to see significant rainfall with large scale risk of flooding continuing overnight and through Friday before easing. Severe storm outbreak is of some concern over the southeast inland from Sunday through Tuesday with further flash flood risks possible. The west is hot and dry with high fire dangers but conditions may begin to cool from mid week with the pattern mobilising a little more. Overall the weather for SA is dry, but coastal areas and some Ag areas may see some light and patchy rainfall with limited moisture via thunderstorms. Otherwise central areas remain dry and warm to hot. But watch the moisture over the north and northeast.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Very high moisture levels over the nation's north and east is leading to widespread heavy rainfall and flooding potential, with severe thunderstorms featuring for many areas as well. The west and central areas seeing mainly dry air for the period, but this looks to get overridden by the movement of the tropical moisture from northern Australia moving south over the next 2 weeks.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

CMC 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - rainfall numbers will begin to ease along the east coast over the coming days but remain elevated, but not as high as what we have seen. Numbers over the far north will move around in relation to the tropical systems and the weather over the inland may dry out for the short term but the moisture may return in the medium term via the jet stream pulling moisture from WA.


A broader look at the moisture through the central areas later in the period.

More weather coming up from 8am EDT


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