The thunderstorm activity has become more isolated in recent days, but where they form in the above average temperatures, they will pack a punch during Tuesday and Wednesday coming. The coverage of rainfall for the north will improve as we track into the latter part of this week with a severe storm outbreak expected Friday and Saturday with a wave passing through.
A trough is forecast to develop over the base of the Top End which will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms most days from next week with those also possibly severe,
The south, hot to very hot with heatwave conditions expected, though the humidity from the north will eventually come south and thundery weather will return from early next week, as we edge towards Christmas.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is forecast to be scattered and random the next few days, the coverage of rainfall below average for this time of year with a dry airmass in place. The south and central areas, should be dry for the next 7 days at least. As we move towards the weekend and into next week, the coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase with a tropical wave passing in from the east and this will set up a period of more widespread rainfall for the northern third of the territory. I will add that this will likely be the last dry spell for the northern parts of the nation. Rainfall returns to the southern districts from early next week and sets in as we run towards Christmas. I will also mention Friday could deliver some very heavy rainfall in some locations under more organised thunderstorm activity.
A broader look at the NT, the drier weather continues for the south.
Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday
Thunderstorms are forecast to appear through the northern Top End, mainly later in the day with some of the storms strong with gusty winds and heavy rainfall. They will be more pulse in nature and not last very long.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
The pressure pattern is typical summer for the week ahead in the short term, with no major severe weather events at this stage, but storms could pack a punch at times and I will assess those events as we go along. But the bottom line is no widespread rainfall is anticipated for at least the coming 10 days. The tropical airmass begins to descend from around Christmas and we should see an uptick in the number of showers and thunderstorms from then into early 2022.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
The very dry air should be removed from the northern and central interior parts of the nation come the end of the week and in response, the showers and thunderstorms will return to these areas, resuming build up conditions. The eastern and southeast inland is expected to see variable weather, but more heat that what we have experienced so far this warm season, but as mentioned, the humidity will also increase, in hand as temperatures increase. The west staying mainly cooler through the period with dry air about and onshore winds. The nation will gradually become more humid as more of that monsoonal weather returns so January may turn wet IF that does indeed eventuate.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
More details in the video
A closer look in - rainfall numbers are coming up over the tropical north and that will filter southwards. More on that coming up after 9pm
A broader look.
More coming up from 9pm EDT with a look at the rainfall across the modelling, the interest lay in the medium and longer term, plenty to talk about.