A very active period has unfolded through the weekend with many areas picking up 1-2 months of rainfall overnight with Wave Hill seeing 50mm of rainfall and Lajamanu around 50mm as well. These areas usually see 10-20mm for the month of October. Further storms are expected this week.
Up north, through the Top End, scattered showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing in random pockets, with some locations getting a gusty rain period while many others staying dry. There may be some increasing rainfall throughout the region during the coming week to two weeks but the better coverage will be about the Daly region through the western areas into the Gregory and Tanami regions.
The trough expected to be slow moving and combining with extensive moisture and heat values. The break in the heatwave conditions has come.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 days
Rainfall expected to be widespread and heavy at times most afternoons and evenings throughout the next 7-10 days across the NT. The heaviest falls are expected to be over areas west of the Stuart Highway throughout much of the NT. Moderate falls to the east. Storms may be severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging wind gusts. The weather largely unchanged throughout this period.
A broader view
Thunderstorm Forecast Monday
Thunderstorms are expected to be numerous in number throughout the NT with damaging winds and heavy rainfall expected mainly west of the Stuart Highway where the instability is greatest closer to the trough axis. Thunderstorms expected over the Top End during the afternoon and evening along the seabreeze front with thunderstorms potentially gusty over inland areas immediately away from the coast.
Flash Flood Risk Monday
The flash flood risk is running high through the outback west of the Stuart Highway with falls exceeding 50mm possible once again overnight into Monday and Monday into Tuesday
Damaging Winds Risk Monday
Where the heaviest rainfall occurs and is ongoing the damaging wind profile is expected to be moderate to high throughout the interior parts, running down the western border.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
More details on the synoptic scale in the video at the top of the page.
GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 days
The very high moisture values leads to excessive rainfall and that also impacts rainfall chances further around the nation where the upper level winds propel that moisture to.
GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 days
Note the moisture recycling and circulating around the nation, I talk more about this at the surface level in the video at the top of the page.
Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
More details in the video.
A closer look in. No skill in specifics, we now work with ranges of rainfall forecasting which I know is frustrating but that is how it rolls.
GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days
Scattered uneven rainfall will continue, but that rainfall prognostic for the tropics into the NT and WA is record rainfall for this time of year.
CMC 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days
That is a wet look for the nation, even SA which is sitting in a 30-60mm range for the next 2 weeks.
CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 weeks
That wet signal continues for much of the nation into mid December
I will update more tomorrow from 7am EDT. Let the models settle and see how they look during the morning.