A trough passing in from WA into the NT and SA will spark up another round of strong storms during Tuesday afternoon and evening with a good chance of further moderate to heavy rainfall possible for southwest and southern districts during Tuesday.
For the north, routine weather expected with afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms possible.
Thunderstorms are likely to be strong but severe weather is not a high chance on Tuesday but that may change during Wednesday afternoon for southeast and southern areas.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is expected to be scattered and uneven which is the NT style for rainfall during this time of year. The rainfall will be heavy throughout where thunderstorms form, but some places will miss out altogether. Southern areas should return to dry by Friday with a cooler southeast to southerly flow, but conditions will warm back up next week but remaining dry. The storms over the north may become more widespread with heavy rainfall chances also picking up under thunderstorms.
The wild weather is further east of the NT where flooding is increasing. So if you are driving between QLD and the NT be aware of the risk of flooding.
Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday
Thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening throughout much of the NT. The better chance and coverage is over the far southwest and south and over the far northwest. Some of those storms could be gusty with moderate to heavy rainfall. Severe weather is not especially high risk.
A broader look at the NT - the risk expands later in the day into Wednesday morning.
00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days
The weather is anticipated to turn unsettled as mentioned in the video from mid week over SA and then into the eastern states. Deep moisture, high levels of instability are expected to lead to widespread rainfall with scattered heavy falls, flooding and severe storm potential. The weather gradually clears from the south and west through SA and VIC from Friday and NSW from Saturday and QLD Sunday, though coastal areas in the east may remain humid with showers, but heavy falls will retreat to the tropics. Out west your weather is turning hotter and drier and this may creep into SA next week. Some potential for another rainfall event next week for the southeast or east which may deliver additional rain and thunderstorms but the confidence is low with not all models on board, however another low in that position that Euro is suggesting is placing a shiver up my spine for flood risks next week on top of what happens this week, IF it happens. The northern tropics getting more unsettled over this week with a better coverage of storms, some severe.
00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days
No change to the guidance with a deep moisture layer in place throughout much of the north and east which begins to move east and north over the weekend, but some chance it could stall out well into next week over parts of NSW and QLD. The drier air can be found over WA and into SA then VIC from the weekend but as mentioned above, a third system with equal rainfall potential has me very concerned next week IF it verifies.
00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
More on this after 9pm tonight.
A closer look in
The wild weather is further east through QLD.
More details to come on all things rainfall after 9pm tonight.