NT - THE WEATHER TURNING DRIER THIS WEEK WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH.

Well below average temperatures in fact are probable during early next week as an anomalous change marches north bringing the chance of raised dust with gusty winds and return to Territory wide dry season conditions. A treat given how close we are to build up.


This likely the last full blast of dry cooler air for the season.


Lets take a look.

Rainfall for the next 10 days.

Dry for much of the period throughout the north and south, clearing thundery showers in the southeast corner tonight but dry weather expected from Saturday onwards for the coming 8-10 days. Moisture may return over the north during next weekend with the convective pop up showers and storms likely to be back on the forecast during the last week of September.

Comfort Levels Saturday

The air should start to dry out from Saturday afternoon for the northwest coast, otherwise the dry season is back for most of the NT with a southeasterly increasing throughout Sunday with milder nights, though sticky afternoon with sea breezes about the coast likely.

Comfort Levels Tuesday

The weather expected to turn anonymously dry with a strong surge of southeast winds with that drier air filtering through from Tuesday into late next week. Elevated fire dangers, possibly extreme may be forecast for this period, with high fuel loads and fresh to strong winds.

DATA

Euro 00z Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Next 10 days

Pattern is largely unchanged but shows a colder airmass that poses some concern for the southeast states next week in terms of frost and graziers issues with well below average temperatures. The weather over in the west by contrast, lovely, settled and warm, and the hot dry weather over the tropics will continue right through the outlook. The weather over the eastern inland north of NSW will likely remain dry for much of the outlook. There may be a front that interrupts moisture building back up over northern and eastern areas of the nation in the last week of September, but not all models agree on this idea, and introduce a low pressure system from WA with inland troughs forming. With the SAM trending more positive, I would think easterly winds likely return, but not one rule in weather is ever fixed. But it is looking quieter next week past the cold blast.

Euro 00z Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

PW Anomalies really paint the picture of the significant dry airmass developing throughout the nation, suppressing rainfall chances, drying out the tropics and combining with high pressure to promote clear skies and increasing the risk of frost through the eastern states. How severe the frost gets remains to be seen, but will keep watch and have frost forecasts for the east next week by Sunday. Otherwise, the moisture does return over WA later next week into the weekend and this may start to introduce rainfall back for the last week of the month. Otherwise it is benign for now and quieter next week.

Euro 00z Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

GFS 00z Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days - Moisture to return later September.

More details to come on Saturday morning with the National Weather Wrap.

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