NT - THE WEATHER QUIET AS A MOUSE FOR FEBRAURY.

And dry too - the air may not feel it, but the rainfall is suppressed under a building upper high over Central Australia, leading to more stability in the pattern across the region for the coming 4-5 days.


Rainfall will become hard to find, though mainly afternoon and evening over the Top End, north of about Elliot. South of Elliot, bone dry and hot. Baking temperatures with no relief in sight during the coming 7-10 days.


Over the course of the medium term, there are hints moisture levels do return to higher levels resulting in more shower and thunderstorm activity returning to the NT.


Lets take a look at the latest.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Not much expected south of Elliot for the coming 10 days. North of Elliot, the weather anonymously dry, with a large upper high taking control for a while and two tropical features on either side of the nation, places our region under ridging and sinking air motion. For the most part conditions are expected to return to build up with random warm airmass showers and thunderstorms most afternoons, these could be gusty but moving at pace, so rainfall largely light. The weather may turn more active towards the end of next week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Below average thunderstorm coverage is expected to continue for the tropics with a relatively stable airmass. The most likely time for thunderstorms is between 2-10pm with storms potentially gusty but overall rainfall not expected to be heavy for a long duration.

DATA - Refer to the video for more information where I will use the CMC model data again this evening


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pattern is largely unchanged again on the GFS which is good for forecasting consistency. Still looking at a relatively quiet week nationally with the wet weather over the north and east, below average for this time of year. Dry weather for another 7 days for southern Australia with heat levels on the rise with upper ridging and surface high pressure close by keeping things quiet. A deeper trough over in the west of the nation will remain in the region with scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue, more likely over the Pilbara and the Outback at this stage. The tropical weather very quiet and still eyeing off a 1/30 year dry spell for February if it does verify. Things may start to shift as the SAM turns neutral and then positive towards the end of the month introducing more opportunities over the eastern parts of NSW and QLD. Also the MJO may be moving into phase near Australia bringing wetter weather at the end of the month into March, which could improve rainfall chances nationally.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The lack of moisture is in response to the negative SAM phase over the Southern Ocean which is lifting the drier westerly winds towards the continent. The weather over much of southern and eastern Australia therefore under stable and dry influence. The north of the nation also impacted by the dry air through the interior and east with below average rainfall to continue and that is also in part with the MJO out of phase sitting over the Indian Ocean. The area seeing above average moisture levels are over northwest Australia.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - rainfall coverage is very lean for February.

More weather coming up from 8am EDT. A nice quiet period is not uncommon through February even in La Nina years, so make the most of it for those of you on the land.



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