The nasty weather over the southern parts that produced flash flooding in recent days is now on by.

The weather over the north unsettled, with scattered showers and thunderstorms about tonight, they will be back again tomorrow and Friday as the long road to the monsoon relief continues.

Some of the storms over the north could be gusty at times with the low chance of flash flooding with some of the heavier storms over the western Top End.

Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to be scattered with heavy falls for some and not much for others. The rainfall is expected to wane as we go through the coming few days as the upper heights come up with less rainfall and a suppressed atmosphere., that may last a few days but the rainfall will trend more scattered again from mid next week with the air a little colder over the north. Some of that moisture will seep southwards into the southern NT.

A broader look at the NT

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

A few showers and thunderstorms once again possible for the northern parts of WA, more likely the closer you are to the NT with gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pattern is dynamic and thunderstorms are now developing along the trough through western VIC and NSW with moderate to heavy falls. This will continue to unfold tonight for the east. The low pressure system south of the EP in SA is expected to pass over the region tonight. Remain weather aware over the coming 2 days if you are living in QLD, NSW, VIC, SA and TAS. The event should start to wind down from about Saturday with rain easing over VIC and TAS as the last small scale low under the broader upper low moves away. Out west, a strong cold front and low pressure system is expected to bring a large rainfall event with some areas possibly getting over 1 months rainfall with that feature next week with severe weather risks, including damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The tropics producing showers and thunderstorms most afternoons but they could become more isolated as an upper high builds. If that happens, heat levels will go through the roof. Over the east coast of QLD and NSW, showers may increase with a coastal trough next week while the southeast trends warmer and brighter. The change from the west may eventually spill into the southeast bringing a thundery change later next week.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

We can see the importance of moisture in play right now over the east as the trough works into moist air, this leading to thunderstorm development this evening and overnight over NSW and VIC and a violent day of weather tomorrow. The next major systems on the board to watch over WA early next week with a deep moisture source coming in from the Indian Ocean and another trough on the east coast being fed by onshore winds and deeper moisture. The moisture eventually folding in over the east of the nation the blocking pattern perhaps not as strong than this morning's run of the models. So that could see rainfall chances developing from mid week.

00z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to the video for more details

A closer look in

00z GFS Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more details.

More details on the rainfall and model data tonight after 9pm EDT

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