NT - THE STORMS CONTINUE.

Many areas down the Stuart Highway have recorded 1-2 months of rainfall overnight with thunderstorms and more storms and showers are starting to develop this afternoon and the evening, with some heavy falls and gusty winds once again.


The storms are expected to continue for most days through the outlook period for all corners for the NT with a deep moisture layer and ripe unstable conditions to combine to bring the unsettled weather for the next 7-10 days.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall continues to be scattered most afternoons and evenings across the NT with locally heavy falls in thunderstorms. The random nature of these warm airmass thunderstorms means there is no way of telling you how many, if any, thunderstorms your property/town/community will see. So just be aware they will be about. For southern areas, the coverage of thunderstorms may become more extensive this weekend with more above average rainfall developing.

A broader look at the tropical rainfall expected far and wide across the NT. Your rainfall totals will vary with thunderstorms as you are aware.



Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms weakening tonight and redeveloping once again during the afternoon and evening, with some flash flooding and damaging winds risk for parts of the NT, mainly west of the Stuart Highway.

Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday

Damaging winds of up to 100km/h possible with thunderstorms, especially the closer you are to the SA and WA borders.

Flash Flood Risk Tuesday

Similar to the damaging winds risk, thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding in pockets during the afternoon and evening. 50mm/hr rainfall rates are possible.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

Not much change from this morning. The Euro is quite aggressive in the thunderstorm development with the chance of heavy rainfall over outback areas of WA, NT and SA. That is supported by the other modelling but they differ on rainfall placement so be aware that colours will chop and change but the atmosphere, from run to run, is largely unchanged. That is the parameter to focus on. The troughs of low pressure moving out of WA will run into the moist airmass, which I will add is well above normal, near record values in some spots. So simple math means, that equals the chance of record rainfall totals for some during this period. The Euro has a strong trough passing through the southern states this week, before it stalls out over the eastern inland this weekend in a soupy and unstable northeast flow around a big high in the Tasman. The next storm system develops out of the heat trough over in WA and that may wrap into a low pressure system while moving through SA this weekend with another round of strong to severe storms before that deepens over VIC and NSW with further rain and thunderstorms. Another system may emerge from WA once again continuing the conveyor belt of wet and humid unsettled weather. This should not come as a surprise as I have given you a 2-3 week lead in time. To the west of all the unsettled humid weather, cooler than normal and dry for SWLD of WA through much of this period. Over QLD, the NT and northern WA, severe thunderstorms are possible off and on through this period with flash flooding the biggest concern (that applies nationwide with a saturated atmosphere). The shower and rainfall coverage with thick cloud eventually bringing down the heat values nationwide.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

This paints the picture and shows you the highest moisture values of the spring so far. You marry the above average anomalies with low pressure, your result is high levels of thunderstorm activity, and widespread rainfall with above average rainfall expected for many parts of the nation. Maybe some drier air being drawn into the southern states at the end of the run, but other solutions do not support this so will watch trends. Weather over in SWLD cooler and drier with onshore winds and stable air.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

Values in the yellow are 2 inch PW values, meaning that the air is tropical, saturated right up the trace of the atmosphere and this means lots of cloud, rain, thunderstorms and cooler humid weather for many areas. The drier weather will eventually spill into the southern coastal areas but may not sweep out the humidity over much of the northern two thirds of the nation. So this could exacerbate attempts to harvest, efficiently and the higher humidity may cause damage to crops via severe weather and that high moisture content for a long duration.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more and the post after 9pm EDT for more details.

Uneven blotchy rainfall data represents the thundery nature of the outlook period.

That rainfall is near record values for the outback.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more and the post after 9pm EDT for more details.

CMC 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more and the post after 9pm EDT for more details.

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 Weeks

Refer to video for more and the post after 9pm EDT for more details.

More details coming up on all things rainfall and there are some wild solutions floating around out there. I will break down the details for you all.









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