NT - THE SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE - BUT SOME MOISTURE TO SHIFT SOUTH NEXT WEEK.

The heat is on over the north as we continue to see the build up develop. The weather continuing to show us the early build up trends that was forecast earlier in the year. Pop up showers and storms are developing once again this afternoon, this time a little further south through the base of the Top End.


The south is expected to remain warm and breezy with the cooler air further south now, dry air and sinking air motion keeping the skies mostly clear. However as we track through next week, moisture will begin to build up again over the north and may start to shift south down the Stuart Highway bringing the showers and storms to the outback.


Lets take a look.

Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to be scattered and connected to the afternoon heating process. That means some areas will get a deluge and others hot and dry. The coverage of showers and storms will begin to move south into the outback as the upper northwest to northerly winds brings the unsettled weather towards the Alice.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Pop up showers and thunderstorms are possible over the northern Top End with the diurnal cycle and the seabreeze front moving inland triggering a convergence zone and supporting the chance of that unsettled weather. The storms will be isolated and pulsey.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern is still dominated by the low pressure system over the southeast driving the severe weather over the coming 36hrs. Another large cold front will come through the southwest of WA bringing widespread rain and storms through the region with moderate rainfall and gusty winds on Friday with the showery weather to continue through to the weekend. The change will race through the southern states with gusty winds and showers over the weekend into the southeast by Sunday afternoon and follow up waves of low pressure likely to keep the showery weather going for much of next week. The most widespread rainfall looks to be mid to late next week with another low pressure system with the potential for moderate falls. That system unlikely to bring severe weather. The north is hot and humid with pop up showers and storms which may begin to increase in coverage during the middle of next week. It looks cooler than average across southern Australia next week.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Moisture is deep and extensive over the south and east and also through southern Australia back into the west with another surge of moisture. We were dominated by dry air last week, this is what the pattern flip looks like. Next week, we see the tussle between the dry and moist air with a wavy flow pattern underway. Each system coming through southern Australia will have the potential to bring spring showers, you can see the most widespread moisture again is early in the period and mid next week, and note how it rotates around the north of the nation and then southeast into the jet stream.

The moisture watch chart shows this and the model spread.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Rainfall is quite extensive over the east over the coming 36hrs and the SWLD during the coming 36hrs with two low pressure systems in full control. The north is unsettled with a few showers and storms through this week, with again mixed odds in the modelling, does the moisture come south or east or does it stay contained over northern Australia? This will impact rainfall chances and amounts over the south and east as we move through the coming 10 days. I suspect that next week could turn wetter than what it is leading onto at this time.

A closer look in

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

You can find more information in the video blog above.

I will have more from 7am tomorrow - I will renew the regional charts in terms of rainfall and the model watch and rainfall once this system in the east is off the board.

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