The tropical low that formed in the Arafura Sea, running along the Arafura Shelf is expected to move further west into the Timor Sea and remain out to the northwest of the NT and continue to adopt that westerly track. But it will fuel some robust bands of storms close to the north coast over the coming 2 days.

In the short term through to the weekend and into next week, more gusty storms can be expected. There have been some difficulty in pinning down the direct impact of the MJO as it moves through northern parts of the country and how close it comes to making landfall for the Top End. At this time, enhanced rainfall chances remain a higher risk as we move into the end of the month and early April. This forecast does not quite capture that but I do talk about it in the video.

For southern areas, we are watching some of that moisture creeping in from the west and northwest via WA this weekend and we could see a handful of high based storms over interior parts, but most of you dry. If you get a storm, it will be elevated, noisy and not much rainfall is expected.

The weather remaining mostly dry and very warm to hot for much of this period for the southern parts of the NT with an upper ridge over head. The fast flow pattern that emerges to the south of the country may help to draw in moisture from the Indian Ocean and where the forecast battle between the cooler air and the hot air takes place, this is where you will find the cloud bands form. At this stage they should be to the south of the NT.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

The rainfall is forecast to be most concentrated over the Top End, mainly north of Katherine, where rainfall totals could exceed the average for this period but also for the month. The rainfall connected to bands of showers and thunderstorms. The tropical low that formed north of the NT has pulled some of the instability away from the NT in the short term but more storms will return in the next few days and that coverage is forecast to increase through the weekend and into next week. The MJO on the approach across the north will likely enhance the risk of cyclone activity as well and this could enhance rainfall for the end of the month and into April, which once again falls outside of this forecast window.

The southern areas could see some very isolated light falls with thunderstorms that emerge during the weekend and into next week. No severe weather is expected from those.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are forecast to be scattered to numerous once again through the Top End with storms tending gusty at times with heavy rainfall a risk over the north coast but within the tolerance of what is normal at this time of year. The main concern is the wind gusts accompanying the squalls running through the Top End. Dry weather over the southern part of the NT will continue near ridging.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Damaging winds remain a high chance over the same locations once again into Thursday as the pattern remains largely unchanged as we track through the next few days. Organised squall lines will be the main focus for damaging wind gusts rather than discrete thunderstorm cells.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

I will say that the outlook is very low confidence and I run through all the details in the video so to save you reading, head to the video, otherwise the next update at 8am tomorrow morning will be of use.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content and placement across the nation beyond about 5 days is quite poor in terms of confidence from run to run. Better confidence is found over the northern parts of the nation with the MJO on the approach.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis - I am not doing the fly around tonight for your state because the confidence is so appalling and really it is a waste of time in these situations. Anything from beyond 5 days should be treated with caution across all data sets and agencies.

More coming up from 9pm EDT with a look at the models and rainfall, I will only share information that is in reasonable agreement as too much is too confusing and I only want to share what is plausible at this time, so stay tuned for that.

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