That pattern is unlikely to shift all too much from what we have seen yesterday so rather than harping on about it lets get straight into it with the video.
Rainfall Next 10 Days
The rainfall is remaining in build down distribution and as we saw today with 85mm in some of the Darwin region in the space of 2 hours, the falls will be heavy but fairly isolated. That is typical for this time of year. The tropical low that was forecast to become Darian last week for this week, is forecast to remain over Cape York. It is likely this feature becomes westward moving in the medium term spreading rainfall and wind throughout the Arafura Sea and this may clip the Top End beyond this period. A lot of the weather from south of Katherine looks mostly dry at this time.
Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday
Thunderstorms will continue to unfold through mainly the afternoon and evening with some areas getting quite the downpour (as per today) while others missing out. The higher risk of thunderstorms will be found over the northwest Daly once again where the weak trough and convergence with deep moisture can all be found to produce the thunderstorm activity.
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
The SSTs are above average through the region so any tropical depression that moves through the region over the coming weeks will still carry the chance of deepening into a late season cyclone.
DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks
The pattern is clearly shifting gears now to a drier pattern for many of us and that should be expected at this time of year and should not be of concern considering that we are approaching April and this is very much what I am looking out for. A 2-3 week period of settled, stable weather for the south of the nation is on schedule this year. And the tropics are also responding with the storms and showers decreasing in coverage too.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks
The moisture post the low pressure system in the Tasman Sea is out of here so do expect there to be a drop in overnight temperatures and the risk of frost is not quite there yet for the plains but many areas will get down to the mid single figures over the weekend and into next week as a result. This weather pattern will continue to be with us until next week before temperatures start to rise as the high moves into the Tasman Sea. Many areas by the weekend are looking very much settled and calm from WA through SA and into the eastern states. Showers only found in scattered pockets over the east coast and over the northern areas. So this looks to be the driest weather we have seen since last August.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to the video for more context and analysis
00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Rainfall numbers are coming down over the northern tropics.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks
Refer to the video for more context and analysis
A closer look in - issues remain around whether the tropical wave passes west from Cape York or heads east into the Coral Sea. At this time, there is a strong signal that rainfall is decreasing over the north.
Moisture Watch Next Week - April 4-11th 2022
The moisture really gets swept out during the period with the likely area for moisture to remain deep is over the northern tropics and through the northeast tropics and low level moisture along the east coast via southeast to easterly winds. The drier air should remain over the southeast, eastern and southern as well as central inland areas of the nation. There could be a few ports of moisture coming in from the northwest Indian Ocean but these should have minimal impact with the backside of the large upper high kicking the moisture offshore. There will be moisture running through the tropical north and some of this may be drawn southwards into northwest QLD, but with the large high pressure system in play, this will suppress rainfall chances again.
Rainfall Anomalies - April 4th-11th 2022
Above average rainfall chances remain in place over the northeast of the nation with the persistent trough and potential for a tropical low to linger bringing widespread rainfall through the Gulf and into Cape York. Most elsewhere, though it is a dry forecast for most areas across the inland, this is quite normal and so no deviation to drier or wetter than normal is the right forecast. So it is what we call benign Autumnal weather which is great for those on the land getting things sorted ahead of the approaching seasonal changes into the cool season.
Temperature Anomalies Next Week - April 4th-11th 2022
Above average temperatures over the southeast of the nation and extending through central and eastern inland areas of the nation. The northern tropics also looking near to above normal with higher humidity values. Seasonal weather conditions over the east coast with onshore winds and the chance of showers. The weather over the west coast is expected to remain near seasonal for the most part, though eastern districts and through the central and northern interior regions could be leaning above average.
I will have more from 8am EDT, tomorrow I will review the rainfall data sets in the evening.
I just want to get tonight's heavy rainfall off the board and the model data to settle on how that low preforms in the east of the nation as that feature will have impacts for the rest of the nation including how much moisture is propelled northwards into the tropics and into the western interior and how the weather unfolds in the west, does the low in the east block the trough and moisture over the western and northwestern parts of the nation?