NT - THE MONSOON IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR, BUT ANOTHER WEEK OR SO OF BUILD UP TO COME FIRST.

Probably the most interesting weather to come this week is the monsoonal flow drifting further south from the equator and spawning some more active weather for the northern parts of the nation.


In advance of that, the thunderstorm activity is likely to ramp up and become more aggressive as the flow becomes more unstable.


The monsoonal flow may be about 2 weeks away at this stage, but could be drawn in quicker if a tropical low/cyclone forms in the coming 10 days.


The south is expected to become more unsettled and humid throughout this week, but the coverage in rainfall is likely to be less widespread than what we saw weeks ago. And the heat is certainly on!


Lets take a look

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The rainfall is becoming more regular now through the Top End with the thunderstorm activity rolling through most afternoons and that activity is heading southwards. Some of the rainfall heavy at times with thunderstorm activity. Note the heavier rainfall over the north of the nation with the monsoonal flow on the approach.

A broader look at the rainfall spread and you can see the numbers taper off the further south you go with the ridge nearby.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop from Monday afternoon and evening with the storms turning severe with damaging winds. That is the main risk tomorrow afternoon and evening. The storms will be spreading further south and west as we go this week.

Damaging Winds Monday

Damaging winds are a moderate to high risk with thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening.

DATA- You can see the GFS and CMC in the video.

00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

The pattern is fairly complex, low confidence and that means that your forecast will change from run to run, quite wildly in the next few days. Note the areas of interest will be the storm outbreak over the southeast and east of the nation mid week that could a spawn a heavy rainfall event on the NSW or VIC coast. The tropical weather is becoming more dynamic as we have seen today and the west is hot and dry with a heatwave underway and that may spread eastwards this coming weekend into SA and then VIC.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The moisture is expected to be reserved over the northern and eastern parts of the nation and that is where you will find the rainfall. The amount you see will come down to the position of low pressure over the north and the east and where the monsoon enters in the medium term, which we will not know for about 2 days. it is a tricky forecast. The west of the nation looks drier under high pressure and that will extend into SA and western NSW and VIC.


00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

I am leaning with this solution - I do think the tropical weather will change drastically from run to run. That will impact the rainfall forecasts down the track for southern and eastern Australia.

A closer look in - the rainfall amounts will vary from location with the thunderstorm in place and some of these could drop 50mm in a sitting over the tropics, some areas possibly upwards of 100-200mm.

More details coming up in the rainfall wrap after 9pm EDT and that will be an interesting read.

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