NT - THE MONSOON ARRIVES OVER THE NORTH, FLOODING RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS ALL AREAS.

A very unstable, moist and wet phase is contiuing for large parts of the NT. Over the weekend we have seen around 200mm in some outback communities down the Stuart Highway with widespread flooding being observed in these areas.


The monsoon trough has also arrived in the north and the widespread showers and thunderstorms have commenced. It is the coolest day over the NT in about 6 weeks so a refreshing change. Some storms have been severe with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. That will continue.


For the week ahead, what you see outside is what you are likely to get this week.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be widespread, heavy and lead to areas of flooding over many regions this week. Outback flooding holds the greater concern this week for me, with some communities likely to be cut off for weeks and the major roads also possibly cut off. The rainfall rates will be tremendous at times, and this could support some areas seeing record rainfall potential. The monsoon up north will bring seasonal conditions for the Top End but a tropical depression could spice up rainfall totals from later in the week with gusty winds developing. All in all, a very wet, La Nina Summer continues.

A look at the NT and it is looking very wet for many areas.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

More thunderstorms expected over a large area of the NT with flash flooding a very high risk in all districts. You have to cop a storm to feel the impacts but all districts carry a risk of severe thunderstorm activity.

A broader look across the NT

Flash Flood Risk

Flash flooding is a high to very high risk over much of the NT. Some areas will see additional flash flooding as to what has been experienced so far this weekend. That will likely spill over into increasing riverine flooding potential as well.

Riverine Flood Risk

Widespread flooding is expected throughout much of the NT with ongoing heavy rainfall, storms and saturated catchments resulting in delays in transport and logistics up the Stuart Highway and cattle stations being overrun with water at times. Be weather aware! Plan NOW!

DATA - More analysis in the video.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Not much to add from the video other than disregard that system over the southeast in the medium term, the model will likely remove that in the next run. What it is suggesting is that the weather is expected to remain unsettled for northern and eastern areas of the nation with a strengthening monsoon. The weather in the west remains hot and dry, that carries a high confidence. As we enter February, we should begin to feel the impacts of that peaking La Nina which it is in the process of doing.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

A very rich environment for productive rainfall, of record proportions for some areas. We have seen that occur in many parts of SA and do not think that cannot be replicated again off the back of what we are seeing on the synoptic scale in combination with the near record moisture values.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - monsoonal weather is notoriously understated in modelling, and therefore rainfall totals eclipsing this over the coming 2 weeks in some locations is a very good chance.

More weather coming up tonight on all things rainfall and the models for the week ahead. Take care in the wild weather across parts this evening.





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