NT - THE LAST WEEK OF DRY SEASON PERHAPS?

A nice shot of dry air has already passed through during the past few days, with a secondary surge of dry expected to pass through southern Australia tomorrow extending north during mid week, with perhaps seasonal to below seasonal temperatures for much of this week, before we see the heat return by the weekend.


Moisture, humidity and all round build up conditions for you in the northern Top End likely to return from this time next week.


Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

Not much, really bone dry for the best part of this next 7-8 days before the chance of showers return for the northeast and northern coasts as the moisture increases in line with a northeasterly shift. Until then it is quiet.

DATA

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Next 10 days

The pattern is in good agreement with the GFS with strong cold front passing through during the coming 48hrs the main weather to watch nationally away from the high pressure. The west will be dry and warm to hot this week, perhaps a weaker change passing through in dry fashion to take the temperatures down by the weekend but at this stage, from WA, through inland SA, all of the NT, much of QLD and into northern and western NSW, dry conditions are expected with a good supply of sunshine. The weather turns more interesting in about one week, we have the SAM likely turning more positive introducing easterly winds over QLD and NSW seeing showers returning and a formidable rainfall event offshore WA may approach in about 9 days time. Northern tropics should enjoy the last week of dry weather before the return of build up conditions.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

Precipitable Water values as outlined in the video are way below average this week nation are way below average, hence no rainfall and colder conditions over the south, warmer weather over the west and north. Drier air allows temperatures to rise and fall more freely. The best part of a week shall pass before the moisture begins to creep back in and this is where rainfall chances pick up over QLD and WA. The tropics into October should see more coverage of rainfall. Moisture will work its way back into southern states from later this month lifting rainfall chances.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Next 10 days

Not a whole lot away from the southeast. Once that system is off the board on Tuesday, the rainfall you can see is really for the back half of the period, so not much for the coming week over inland areas, coastal areas of QLD through NSW should see showers return later in the outlook period. Perhaps a few light falls with a weak front Friday over the southeast and then the larger trough and stormy outbreak over WA is the system to watch as we end the month. That system may run into moisture in place over eastern NSW and QLD and see a larger area of rainfall develop for months end into early October.

Broader view shows the moisture returns through QLD over the NT.

GFS has more moisture to work with than what it is spitting out in rainfall potential tonight, so watch this space and do not get caught up on the chopping and the changing in the model. Looking at the trends, rainfall chances increase from the 24/25th of this month onwards and in kind from last few days of September.

Model wrap of the rainfall potential in the medium term coming up tonight from 9pm.

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