Starting my daily weather forecast for the NT with the weather starting to become more unstable and active earlier, rendering a forecast now for the region daily.

The north will see relatively hot and dry conditions today but the heat values are likely to increase dramatically with humidity sweeping in from the east with a pulse expected to bring an uptick in showers and storms through mid week before clearing off over the weekend.

The humidity values are expected to sweep in from Wednesday and stick around until the weekend, bringing up the surface based instability and giving rise to afternoon showers and storms over the north. In the south there could be a band of rain that develops in response to the stalled boundary and cold air trying to rush into the warmer and humid air over the region. Watch this space!

I have updated the video blog today for the nation below. More information will be added for tropical areas as the weather becomes more active in the coming months. And for those who are reading this outside of the region, this information is valuable as the tropics rule rainfall chances throughout the summer time.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall comes back over the north of the Top End with a surge of moisture mid week, and that will kick off afternoon showers and storms in random scattered pockets north of Adelaide River and morning showers along portions of the coast that will head northwest and clear. Then we have a stalled boundary this weekend over the south of the Territory with the chance of rain developing over the southern Barkly and Alice Springs region which could produce some of the heaviest rainfall in nearly one year!

00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

Above average temperatures will persist in the east northeast flow for the good part of the week, with an increase of moisture expected from mid week triggering some showers and thunderstorms over the northern areas, mainly north of Adelaide River. Hot and dry with afternoon cloud over the areas south of Katherine through to the SA border until Friday. Then a band of rain and storms moving north from SA will enter the south and become near stationary next week. There is also evidence that a stronger dry southerly flow may work north and bring possibly the last dry surge of the season with a few days of below average temperatures.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Patchy hit and miss precipitation over the north very tricky to forecast ahead of time, with the chance of areas recording 20-40mm from thunderstorms over the north but many areas staying dry. The more widespread rainfall is over the weekend into next week with 10-20mm possible over the outback but could be heavier falls between Ti Tree and Tennant Creek on current guide over 30mm.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

The main feature for this major rainfall event later in the week is the merging and absorption of moisture from the north and east of the nation, where does that take place and how much moisture survives the journey from WA into SA. That moisture will pass west of the NT and increase widespread cloud and showers and storms to redevelop mid to late week. These questions will be answered mid week onwards. Follow that a colder drier surge is being progged by most models next week so expect a period of below average temperatures and if the air is indeed dry and stable, severe frosts are possible next week which could pose a problem for crops in the south and below average temperatures spreading over the tropics for possibly the last dry surge of the season.

I will have a weather wrap during Tuesday morning and a September Climate Outlook due out at lunchtime.

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