NT - THE DRY SEASON RETURNS TO THE NORTH - SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH

Plenty of reports of the hot and humid weather in recent days from friends in the north, the build up was in full force for a few days, but the drier air is starting to move through, with lower dew points and southeast to easterly winds.


The rainfall focus shifts back to the southern interior of the territory with gusty storms about on Friday with light falls if anything and raised dust a risk.


The weather will turn sharply cooler through southern areas during early next week with a southerly flow developing as new high pressure coming in. Up north, the dry season should kick on for another week, before the humidity comes back with the next round of showers and thunder.


Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall for the Territory is rather lean right now, typical for September which is still part of the dry season. Light falls are expected for parts of the south tomorrow through Saturday before the moisture clears off Sunday. Drier air and colder weather moving through the south will reinforce a drier week next week for the north, but next weekend, I full suspect the moisture to return.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms will develop through the southern half of the Territory as a trough with moisture and jet stream move through the region, combining to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms during Friday. Thunderstorms will drop little rainfall with a dry airmass at the surface so the storms will be elevated. The risk of dry lightning also a chance with raised dust reducing visibility.

Comfort Levels Saturday onwards

Much drier air will be with us from Saturday pushing the humid air back to the north and northeast, with the sea breeze bringing in the lower level humidity for coastal areas, pleasant the more inland you go.

00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall - Next 10 days

The weather is largely unchanged from this morning, the high pressure is moving eastwards this evening finally making way for the trough and front to approach the southeast later tomorrow. That will be the focus of the wet weather for the weekend. Another front is expected next week over the southeast bringing bitterly cold late wintry weather for the south and east. Meanwhile a high to the west of Adelaide will keep the remainder of the nation dry and settled for most of next week. A slow clearing trend is expected for the southeast and it will take a while to recover from the cold temperatures of Monday. Moisture looks to return for the nation later next week into the weekend, as the SAM trends positive and the high pressure begins to sit further south and the prevailing winds shift into the east. Dry weather for the tropics too, perhaps the last burst of dry season weather for the season.

00z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The PW Anomalies continue to support a drier surge of air rolling through the southern and eastern inland of the nation bringing well below average temperatures and suppressing rainfall chances away from coastal areas. As we saw with the GFS and you can see below, the difference in the rainfall distribution and potential is connected to the moisture over the inland, does it get absorbed into the follow up system and lifted into rain areas over northern NSW and southern QLD or does it stay back over the west of the nation with no precipitation from this high PW value? Later in the period, moisture does return as the high shfits east and places the nation back into a prevailing easterly wind regime. Moisture may also be drawn into the mid latitude westerly winds and bring middle and upper level moisture back through southern Australia, possibly feeding troughs that could form in the eastern wind pattern over the nation.

00z Euro - Rainfall - Next 10 days

More notes on rainfall differences between the GFS and Euro for the eastern states can be found in the weather video.

00z GFS - Rainfall - Next 16 days

Latest Model Wrap on all the rainfall data coming up after 9pm tonight.


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