NT - THE DRY SEASON DAYS ARE COMING TO AN END.

This may very well be the last of the dry season goodness with the weather trending more humid as we get into the weekend, but before then, the temperatures are set to scorch, with many areas over the Top End getting close to September records.


The weather will turn more humid this weekend over the northern regions as east to northeast winds redevelop and drag in that moisture from the northeast.


For the south, it is the opposite with a nice dry cold pop of air coming through the south with a cold front stalling out through the region with dry cold nights, back to frost risks over the southern districts, before the weather rapidly turns warmer over the weekend with moisture from the north and east increasing the chances of unsettled weather


Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days.

There is nothing forecast of any significance in the coming 7 days for the Territory, however, the moisture breaking out over the east north and west of the region will see rainfall chances lift and this will eventually override the drier spell for many locations. The build up is knocking on the door for the region!

Across the state, it is dry.

DATA

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Drying out nicely from the south and southwest with the coldest air passing through this evening over the southeast states and moving north through eastern inland of QLD and then onwards to the west, the air modifying and warming up. Out west on the western flank of the high pressure system, a dry warm airmass is expected, that warmer air spreading through the southern states during the coming week into the weekend with dry weather for most areas. A weak front is anticipated for Friday over the southeast of the nation with a few showers. The weather then turns quite humid and unsettled over eastern areas of the nation as a trough deepens and feeds off moisture, on the other side of the nation another trough deepens over SWLD of WA with showers and storms developing next week. The difference between the Euro and GFS, is that the GFS sees the moisture and connects that with the troughs, and on tonight's run I side with GFS out of the two. The tropics also turning more humid and unsettled through next week.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The shift in the pattern away from the dry airmass flooding through the nation will take about 5-6 days to overcome. The weather turning more seasonal atmospherically during the weekend and then clearly next week you can see the moisture pouring in over the eastern inland and being lifted by a trough and the Indian Ocean seeing the moisture surging from the northwest Indian Ocean.

Euro 00z - Rainfall- Next 10 days

Not much change from this morning, the dry weather is expected to rule the region until next week when moisture returns and rainfall chances increase over the north. The interior is dry for now but this is anticipated to change at the end of the month.

I will have another wrap of the models once they all come in and a look at the GFS latest run tonight after 9pm.


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