The lack of thundery weather, cloud cover and humidity across the NT leading to unseasonal sunny hot weather, a preview of the dry season that will arrive here in 8 weeks time, but for now, it is just a blip, things are set to get more unsettled and wetter as we go through the outlook.
For southern areas, this will be the case as well. More cloud is expected to develop with humidity values creeping up as the tropics become more active and the upper ridge begins to break down over head.
So while it is quiet now, it will not be the case by next week with very different weather conditions expected to develop.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is very much below average and this is following the guidance from 2 weeks ago after that large expression of rainfall and monsoonal weather. This is normal, but the dry spell is a little longer than normal. However it will all shift in the coming days, more showers and storms developing for the Top End as a trough moves north from Elliot to be near Katherine and then drops south again next week. Another trough is likely to form north of the nation next week and this form the monsoonal flow, needed to bring back the wet season proper. Some areas could see heavy rainfall at the end of next week and there is the chance of tropical depression formation as well.
Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday
Thunderstorms are expected to form in isolated pockets across the NT, mainly north of Elliot with some of the storms gusty. Heavy rainfall not very likely with the airmass tomorrow quite dry.
DATA - Refer to video for further information on the short and medium term analysis and the systems to watch!
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks
As mentioned in the video, the timing of the MJO in line with the phase of the SAM will dictate the coverage of rainfall across the nation through next week. Until then, we have a trough over the southeast extending through NSW and QLD and back over Central Australia into the northwest of the nation which will serve as the focus for inland showers and thunderstorms. The weather over the east coast will remain unsettled over much of tropical QLD with the trade winds pumping in large amounts of rainfall and thunderstorm activity. The tropics will remain unsettled but the better coverage of rainfall comes from the weekend through next week as the trough over the region starts to deepen in advance of the MJO returning. The weather for southern areas of the nation remaining seasonal over VIC and SA with temperatures climbing above average for WA with easterly winds returning there. Those winds that bring rainfall over the east coast dry out as they run over land and reach WA.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks
Not much change from this morning, we have better agreement that moisture is expected to increase over northern and eastern Australia through this week. The drier air will be found over southwest SA and into WA and through the Outback of WA. An upper high also trapping the dry air in place. The northern tropics experiencing the below average moisture are likely to see conditions turn more seasonal over the weekend, so the dry season preview is out the door very soon over the NT.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for more details.
00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for more details.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks
Refer to video for more details and the state based flight around
A closer look in - more analysis and timing in the video
More information coming up from 8am EDT - have a great evening.