The weather has been remarkably quiet in recent days over the NT with a large dry airmass rolling through and an upper high through central areas keeping a lid on the rainfall chances throughout. However, those who love the sunny drier weather, the wet is set to return and the humidity expected to increase dramatically in the coming days, leading to more showers and thunderstorms returning.
Over northern areas, probably north of about Katherine in the short term, is where you will find the larger clusters of showers and storms in the coming days, some of those could be severe on Thursday with damaging winds and again on Saturday and Sunday.
The coverage of thunderstorm activity begins to move southwards during the weekend and into next week with more humidity spreading south to Tennant Creek and then the Alice by the middle of next week with more chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Across later next week, there is the chance of tropical depression activity north of the Top End through the Arafura Sea. I will be issuing charts on this perhaps from the weekend once I assess more data.
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is expected to be below average through to about Sunday throughout the NT with the coverage of showers and thunderstorms increasing over the coming days, but coming from a very low base, so the moisture will gradually increase and that will go hand in hand with the showers and thunderstorms developing and then increasing in that coverage. Next week, from about Tuesday, widespread showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy falls are expected to form over the northern coast of Arnhem Land and through the Daly before that higher rainfall coverage spreads southwards throughout the Top End from late next week. Flooding and severe weather is possible.
Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday
Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on Thursday over the Top End, mainly north of Elliot during the afternoon and evening with some of the storms expected to be severe with damaging winds over the Northwest Top End. Rainfall accumulation still expected to be below average
Damaging Winds Risk Thursday
Damaging winds with thunderstorms are a moderate to high chance over the northwest of the Top End during the afternoon and evening. Winds of up to 110kmh possible with organised lines of thunderstorms moving through.
DATA - Refer to the video for more information with regards to the short and medium term analysis
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks
The nation still remains in a dry airmass with only showery weather for the far east coast and along the southeast coast with a weak trough and front. Showers and storms quite thin in the air over parts of the northern tropics. Over the course of the next 5 days, the upper pattern will start to cool and become more unstable over much of the north and through eastern Australia. The climate drivers which have been covered off extensively, the SAM and MJO, will rotate around to be in phase, producing a pattern more supportive of widespread rainfall for northern and eastern Australia, starting about coastal areas but then spreading inland. In advance of more widespread rainfall over the inland of the nation, scattered showers and storms should feature through much of the NT, QLD, NSW and extend into VIC before we see more organised weather emerge later in the period and into the medium term. Models now showing the monsoonal weather to emerge at the end of the month into early March.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks
No change to the guidance with the moisture gradually increasing across the central, northern and eastern parts of the nation with the wind patterns supporting the moisture to pool over the southeast and east of the nation. The weather over in the southwest and south are expected to be drier than normal with the prevailing wind pattern running over land, meaning dry hot winds for southern WA and western SA and parts of the southern NT.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for more
00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for more
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
Refer to video for more and the state based fly around and analysis
A closer look in - this rainfall guide will be changing I can assure you!
More details coming up tomorrow from 8am EDT with a look tomorrow at Winter 2022 at a glance and to see where the data takes us and how that stacks up against previous outlooks and years.