NT - THE BUILD UP CONTINUES UP NORTH WHILE THE SOUTH IS HOT AND DRY.

The weather is very much following the early build up script with scattered cloud cover over the north of the NT with pop up showers and thunderstorms again developing in the peak of the daytime heating process along the sea breeze front as it moves inland while the central and southern areas are dry and hot.


Things may start to shift for towns and communities down the Stuart Highway next week as moisture starts to move south through the NT, lifting the chances of rainfall for the outback from this time next week.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The weather is expected to remain very dry for another week for much of the NT, though I am drawing in much of the NT in a light rainfall chance, denoting the risk of rainfall returning next week with that moisture surging southwards. The weather over the Top End favouring more in the way of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the north with isolated falls of 20-40mm.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday.

Again the same old song and dance, with an upper high about, only isolated pop up showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening, mainly over the north and possibly in central parts near a very hot airmass, giving rise to dry high based storms later in the day, but the risk too marginal to draw in at this time.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing for the next 3 days with areas of rain as well with moderate falls. Just wet weather with increased risk of flooding. The west remains wet and stormy with two troughs in the coming days. The north is looking humid with a few showers and storms over the northern Top End most days this week coming. Remain weather aware across areas over the east. More rainfall is possible next week with a series of fronts and troughs but the confidence is fairly low at this time, but there is no excessively hot or cold weather, no severe weather threats nationwide beyond the events of this week.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

PW anomalies running high hence the significant coverage of rainfall and storms this morning throughout the south and east with warmer overnights and a humid feel to the air. This still expected to linger until the weekend. Another burst of moisture coming through the southwest of the nation with storms forecast and soupy weather over the north with PW values increasing to above average, leading to early build up. The moisture recycles next week through the interior with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible over interior parts which will then be drifting east. Some chance of rainfall returning beyond this outlook to the eastern and southeast inland and the tropics tending more active.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall unchanged from this morning, there is follow up potential next week which you find out more about in the video and in the medium term forecast package from this morning.

A closer look in

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Find out more in the blog video at the top of the page.

I will be having the night off to recharge ahead of another big day tomorrow. Stay weather aware.

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