The heat values are getting very high now across the north of the nation as we edge closer and closer to MANGO MADNESS, the showers and thunderstorms are also going to step it up a notch in terms of gusty winds and heavy rainfall risks.

The storms will persist daily throughout the outlook and there is the chance these storms will begin to seep southwards through the NT and into WA as the upper level winds favour the moisture moving away from the north and further south into the central and southern districts.

Thunderstorms may begin to move into the Barkly, Tanami, Lasseter and the Simpson regions by the weekend if not next week as the seasonal shift continues to unfold.

Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

The rainfall continues to be uneven through this period, but the coverage of rainfall could begin to increase on a daily basis as the upper levels become a little bit colder, this will support more robust and widespread convection over the northern areas during the week ahead. The moisture eventually sweeping down the Stuart Highway through Elliot later this week, into Tennant over the weekend and into Alice Springs into early next week.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms, random and scattered each day, continues into Tuesday, there is the chance of gusty winds and heavy rainfall with thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening but for now I am not issuing severe weather for the region. That may commence later this week or into the weekend as heat values hit a season high.


Euro 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Severe thunderstorms have broken out along a trough today and as expected bringing high impact weather, that will return again on Tuesday before moving offshore. The ridge over the southeast will continue to hold firm for much of this week, cradling weakening low pressure troughs passing through from WA bringing unsettled rounds of weather for NSW and QLD in particular. The odd low pressure system is expected to form offshore the NSW coast through this week, enhancing coastal showers. During the weekend, a large upper high is expected to form. On the periphery of that ridge you can see troughs producing showers and thunderstorms, one in the east, one over the west and over the north throughout the period. Under that ridge the southeast will warm up a bit this week too, even following the front passing over later this week, the winds are not cold as they have been in previous weeks. Out west, perhaps the last strong cold front of the season is coming through tomorrow before being shunted south of SA due to the blocking pattern in the east. Over the north the tropical easterly winds are likely to move further south in the coming 10 days and this is where you can see the moisture now running into the west coast trough into the medium term. All signals the weather is starting to shift further. The forecast overall is indicating a low confidence on rainfall spread and intensity across the nation.

Euro 00Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

As outlined in the video, you can point out the amount of moisture coming through in the sequence and not being reflected in the pattern at the surface in showers and thunderstorms. That is the power and suppression of the large scale upper high on GFS but other models are more generous in introducing rainfall back through the nation from next week. You can see the role of the low pressure in the Tasman Sea not only acting to block the passage of the frontal weather and troughs out of the west with deeper moisture and rainfall chances, but note the injection of dry air over the east and southeast inland through the period, as the system oscillates through the region. Meanwhile, deep moisture over WA will bring extensive cloud and rain areas for Tuesday which may run across the south of the nation before moving offshore the coast from Wednesday. The north, above average humidity values as expected with that playing out with more widespread falls further south throughout the north than usual, the early onset rainfall unfolds. And the east will see showers and thunderstorms with troughs from time to time, the moisture over QLD remains near seasonal for most of the period so seasonal rainfall expectations can be forecast for now. Much of the inland looks stable, dry and warm.

Euro 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

The GFS is keen on enhancing the upper ridge over the south and upper high over the north of the nation throughout this period, with the rainfall strictly coastal over the east and southeast, through the tropics and over in the west tomorrow with widespread falls. The major rainfall event for this week is over the in the west. The major storm outbreak is expected in QLD tonight and tomorrow and again over the weekend ahead of the next middle level trough coming out of SA. That leaves a good chunk of NSW, SA and VIC relatively dry with stable air in place, but I do think this forecast will resolve and rapidly shift wetter looking at the PW Values available on modelling tonight not being picked up by the heat lows at the surface. That to me makes no sense.

Let us have a closer look in.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to the video for more.

CFS 18z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 Weeks

Refer to the video for more.

More details on all things rainfall coming up from 9pm EDT

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