Plus we have got some tropical mischief next week stirring over the Arafura Sea with models suggesting a range of solutions but without a low level centre identified, it is harder to pick than a broken nose, so keep watch.

The storm activity over the south of the NT has begun to move north as a ridge moves north into the southern districts. It is set to be fine and dry for a while, getting very hot from the weekend and right through next week with some locations seeing multiple days of 40-45C.

Summer is certainly arriving now. The tropics are the wildcard, and what happens with that tropical low is key to how much rainfall is forecast across the NT.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains hit and miss, but where it falls it is heavy, as we have seen today with scattered storms across the Top End. That weather will continue for the best part of the next week. I am not drawing in the chance of the tropical low sweeping west across the Top End just yet. Things dry for the south over the next 10 days

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

No change from today, the storm focus however is contracting north through the Barkly tomorrow with a trough and drier surge stalling out over the Base of the Top End on Saturday keeping the storms where they should be, over the tropics. Storms may be gusty and heavy at times as they have been the past few days.

Thunderstorms are expected broadly north of about Elliot on Friday.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Thunderstorms training over the same location for a period of an hour could lead to areas of flash flooding and falls over 50mm in an hour.

DATA - I take you through the short and medium term details for ease of access in the video.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The main rainfall event for the nation is happening right now and once that is off the board through the southeast, the weather for the nation is turning drier as a whole with warming temperatures. Even the northern tropics will see a reduction in weather thanks to drier air being pushed through though watch that small tropical low over the Arafura Sea in the next week. Otherwise it is warmer, drier and more stable for much of the next 7 days. Finally.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Once we lose the moisture in the east, the air turns drier with more sunny days than not in the coming week. Though note the moisture returns over northern and eastern Australia as the weather begins to turn more unsettled as the SAM tends positive again and the easterly winds return following the fast flow pattern over southern Australia next week, which leads to the heat being shared around.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details in the video

A closer look in - drier weather for the south but still damp up north, particularly later in the period.

A closer look at the tropics now. Note the tropical system well to the east keeping the build up in place until Christmas at this time.

Temperature Anomalies - December 14-20th 2021

A sharp shift to warmer and drier weather nationally will result in moderate heatwave conditions for inland areas of SA, eastern WA, southern NT and perhaps western NSW and QLD. Dry heat with a north wind leading to elevated fire dangers in these regions as well, but less likely the further east you go. The west by contrast, cooler, with persistent onshore westerly winds. The weather over the north is dependent upon the movement of tropical mischief over the Arafura Sea.

I will be working further on the App this evening and have another update tomorrow from 7am EDT and a look at the 6 week outlook as well. Can we snag much drier weath

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