And heavy falls will continue in some locations, which we have observed during the past couple of days, some locations seeing 80-120mm in a sitting.
That will continue to happen for much of this week with coastal areas likely to see organised severe weather at times at night, so those communities over the northwest Top End will see the heavy rainfall and damaging winds originate from inland thunderstorms during the afternoon.
The southern districts are likely to see scattered showers and storms for a number of days this week before the activity contracts northwards. The storms possibly severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall for central areas.
The pattern dries out for the south by the weekend.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is largely unlikely to change much for northern areas with the guidance for seasonal to above seasonal rainfall chances this week to 10 days. It depends on the evolution of tropical lows/troughs over the waters north of Australia and how the inland heat low also tracks. Deep moisture will stay in place for much of the NT but contract northwards this weekend. Locally heavy falls are expected for the Top End each afternoon.
A broader look shows that rainfall spread tapers off the further south you go through the state but storms will pack a punch.
Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday
Thunderstorms will be back from Tuesday with scattered heavy falls possible and strong gusty winds with the thunderstorm activity. The storms mostly between 2-10pm but not all, we are getting to the stage now where storms can occur at any time.
A broader look at the NT.
Flash Flood Risk Tuesday
Thunderstorms bring a chance of flash flooding once again during Tuesday afternoon with some locations possibly recording 50mm in an hour.
Damaging Winds Tuesday
The strongest storms that form during the afternoon and evening carry the risk of strong and gusty straight line winds. Some wind gusts could exceed 100km/h
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
The GFS is spreading the rainfall over the nation in line with the CMC where the latest Euro has got a different idea in the short term for the east, more on that in the rainfall and model wrap after 9pm EDT. For now the most active weather rainfall wise will be found over the east and southeast this week, the west stays hot and SA, in the goldilocks zone, with seasonal weather for most of this week, hotter inland. No rainfall of note for most of western VIC, SA and southern WA. The tropics remain unstable and hot with storms, locally severe most days. The weather over the interior will be humid to start with but a drier airmass may begin to move in and this could see the heat engine over WA move southeast into SA, VIC, NSW, ACT and QLD from next week with drier weather potential which would be welcome.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
You can see the PW values are below average over the southwest and south of the nation nearer to the high pressure zone. For the north and the east, the moisture remains elevated with a deep supply thanks to onshore winds, the tropical northeasterly winds spreading moisture south through the nation, this pattern allowed to persist for most of this week, leading to the moisture building up to excessive levels. But in the areas closer to high pressure, dry and very hot weather is building and as the pattern flips, that heat will be projected across the south and east, so a break from the humidity over the south and east is quite likely, but replaced with high heat. Then as that heat develops, watch the tropical weather respond, with the humid air returning into the week leading into Christmas.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
More on this coming up from 9pm EDT.
A closer look in - this will continue to change, the heavier rainfall will move around and with the divergence in modelling, it is low confidence forecasting as mentioned for the past week.
The hit and miss nature of Summer rainfall!
More on the rainfall and modelling after 9pm EDT - will the monsoon come before Christmas as what was being modelled last week?