It has been unbearable about parts of the Top End with excessive humidity, record heat wave conditions, record temperatures and even some isolated heavy downpours. The soupy weather is expected to turn more stormy as we go through the outlook period for the north and also for the south again with a trough expected to deepen over the weekend into next week.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to be uneven in distribution as we continue through the build up but the coverage may increase further with the troughs deepening across the NT. The weather is expected to turn wetter as we go into November which is normal, but some areas could see record rainfall in the coming weeks, so the heat and humidity will pay off.

Rainfall becomes more extensive over the western side of the Stuart Highway.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Similar conditions to yesterday, however the trough over the southeast of the nation extending through NSW and into the NT, offers the central and southern areas the chance of gusty winds and excessive lightning with light falls for now. Storms will contract east over southern areas and clear during the day.

A broader look at the NT.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

The thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over the southern and central areas of the NT where some storms could turn severe with damaging wind gusts and heavy areas of raised dust with these thunderstorms.


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pressure pattern has been very low confidence pertaining to the low pressure system passing over the southeast states and low and behold, now the models have adjusted this feature north and as forecast the risk of severe weather now will be felt further north over Southeast SA and Victoria tonight and tomorrow. Gales also will develop over higher ground in NSW. Severe thunderstorms should weaken this evening, but there is the risk of all modes of severe weather through eastern SA and VIC into parts of NSW. Tomorrow the focus of severe shifts into NSW and QLD, particularly the storm corridor as outlined in the video. The weather settles by Sunday for a good chunk of the nation. But out west is where it turns unsettled and we start to see the next storm system begin to take shape. Deep moisture kicking off daily showers and thunderstorms over the northern half of the nation will begin to shift south and become absorbed into a trough coming out of WA. Model madness surrounds this system with the GFS diving the system south and the Euro passing it through as an open wave with storms spreading east across the nation under both scenarios. The coverage will move around. But the southwest of the nation will remain cool and dry through much of this week with not much in the way of rainfall, apart for onshore winds. The tropics, very active, with severe thunderstorms now starting to develop through parts of the NT and northern WA. More wet weather is expected in the medium term as well. Take away is, it is getting more humid, unsettled and thundery from Tuesday in SA and spreads east.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The deep moisture tells the story and so if you have vulnerable crops in the ground that does not respond to prolonged periods of high humidity, rainfall and temperatures that are seasonal or slightly above, then pay attention to the forecasts. The southwest of the nation sees less moisture near ridging. The deep tropics are very moist and this will continue to feed south into troughs moving around the nation as the high pressure belt moves south and east.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 days

The yellow shading is well removed from the tropics which suggests that where it rains, it will be very efficient rainfall. Heavy falls leading to flash flooding under storms is quite likely under the current guide. It may however offset the hail risk next week if the moisture runs up and down the atmosphere. Expect widespread cloud cover to form and this will start to ease the heat levels over northern and central Australia, but also retard the warming phase through Spring which has been very cool for southern states.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more

A closer look in

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more

CMC 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

Refer to video for more

More details on all things rainfall a little later this evening after 9pm EDT.

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