The weather has been fairly benign in recent days with the risk of showers of thunderstorms being stuck in the afternoon and evening with the diurnal cycle. That is likely to continue for the Top End but the coverage of the showers and storms is set to increase this weekend and into next week.

The pattern over southern and eastern Australia has been very much blocked by the Tasman Sea, and this has had flow on impacts across the NT with dry hot weather for the southern areas and more humid unsettled weather obviously over the north but the coverage of rainfall has not been overwhelming, just the usual scattered falls.

That may change from the weekend with the showers and storms starting to spread southwards throughout the NT with the coverage possibly becoming scattered as far south as Elliot and isolated to Renner Springs. But the dry weather is likely to continue for the remainder of the south where it is closest to ridging.

With the approach of the MJO through the northern areas of the nation during the coming 2 weeks, we may see an enhanced period of showers and thunderstorms over the northern areas of the nation and a higher risk of tropical low/cyclone formation. Some models have suggested this so that will be a feature to watch.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to remain scattered in nature with no deviation from this spread over the coming 3 days, so more rinse and repeat weather. Some of the storms may pack a punch over the Top End with gusty winds and heavy rainfall developing with these storms as they rotate through. The coverage of rainfall will begin to expand this weekend and into next week with the approach and passage of the MJO through the northwest of Australia and as that happens, it could spin up a few small scale low pressure systems which can pack a punch. This may occur in the period outside of this window, but a final burst of enhanced rainfall is possible.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are forecast to impact the same regions again as per today and yesterday with no change to the pattern forecast until the weekend. Storms once again, could be gusty about the Top End, mainly inland of the coast and running east to west, so this keeping most of the activity south of the populated centres over the northwest and north coast.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Thunderstorms will likely continue to produce damaging wind gusts during Thursday afternoon and evening, more likely south of Acacia Hils to Annaburroo. The thunderstorms running westbound at pace so they will pack a punch.

DATA - Refer to video for more information relating to the short and medium term forecasts.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The surface pressure pattern has begun to settle down with a high taking control of the weather picture over much of southern and western Australia. Drier air in the wake of the large low pressure system is expected to filter north over southern QLD with that airmass combining with the drier air to bring settled weather to many and cool starts on the next couple of days. For the west, we are seeing a hot airmass stay in place for the coming days and that will edge eastwards over the course of the next week so temperatures coming up for SA and into VIC and NSW with the humidity of the weekend which triggers the unsettled conditions over the eastern inland on by. The east coast seeing showery weather in onshore winds with no major lifting mechanism, so falls to remain light to moderate and no impact to flood zones. Heaviest rainfall and humidity will retreat to the tropics and this will be in line with the increase in showers and storms over the next week. We are still watching the MJO to see whether that gets it's act together to bring up rainfall chances over the northern third of the nation and whether moisture can seed troughs over the southern and western parts increasing the chance of Autumn Break conditions.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content is expected to come down a notch for the east and southeast and through southern Australia and back into WA for the coming 2 days with drier and clearer skies. The humidity from QLD will likely move back south into NSW with that moisture then being eroded by drier warmer air coming in from SA and WA. So overall there is no long duration deep moisture layer that is set to bring about tropical weather that we have seen through Summer for large parts of the flood zones. Apart from low level moisture via onshore winds in the east, things are looking seasonal. Over northern Australia, the moisture also seasonal but we could see some of that moisture deepen and head south through the sub tropics and this if it comes south far enough, may be drawn into the jet stream bringing up the chances of cloud bands forming on top of the westerly wind belt try to move north in the medium term.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video analysis for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video analysis for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video analysis for more information and the state by state fly around to bring your more context.

A closer look in - the numbers are more uneven in distribution throughout the region as we see no organised low pressure system at this time. But this could change quickly. More on that this evening.

More coming up in the models and all things rainfall update from 8pm EDT tonight.

1 view0 comments