The southern and central parts of the NT, remaining dry and settled with the upper ridge in place until mid next week. The airmass will turn more humid and there is the chance of showers and thunderstorms coming back to central and southern districts mid to late week.

Northern districts, time to prepare for the wet to return with some grunt I suspect. The weather overnight has shown that even in the dry airmass, the storms can pack a punch with some areas around Darwin picking up 40-50mm of rainfall.

More storms are expected in the coming days with breaks of sunshine and hot weather, but the clearer skies will turn cloudier as we move along through the outlook period, the westerly winds will return and I think more frequent showers and storms are forecast next week.

As we move through later next week into the weekend, there is the chance of tropical mischief developing and a low pressure system forming north or northwest of the Top End. This may enhance rainfall across northern areas, and depending on track, the moisture and rainfall may run further south through the NT.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to increase over the course of this period, with more moisture descending from the Arafura Sea and into northern areas of the nation from mid to late week. Now the depth of the moisture in combination with the trough remains to be seen, but the idea is the same, wetter as we go for northern areas. The quicker the rainfall develops over the north, the more moisture that will run south down the Stuart Highway with more showers and thunderstorms coming into play through the drier outback areas. The rainfall may turn more heavy in the presence of a tropical low/cyclone which is a high chance of forming under current guidance at this time of year. So that will be an element to watch.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorm forecast is essentially staying the same as today for the NT on Friday. Thunderstorm chances are coming up over parts of the Top End with some heavy rainfall possible over the inland with storms. Thunderstorms will move west across the Top End and may organise into a squall that will move through Daly, which we have seen in recent nights.

DATA - Refer to video for further analysis and comparison in the model data

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

No change to the guidance from the short term but I will focus on the medium term, looking at the tropical weather now throwing some interesting solutions onto the table, these will chop and change so do not be seduced by them yet, but be aware that the tropics will be influencing rainfall late February into early March. East coast of NSW and QLD looking wet with onshore winds and showery periods with the positive SAM. That signal is increasing now on most modelling. There will be tropical moisture coming southbound in the medium term but where that occurs remains to be seen but be aware there are severe weather events now starting to appear on the charts and more details on that can be found in the video.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The biggest shift from this morning is the moisture spreading from north to south in the modelling, now the location of this will chop and change. But it highlights the influence of the MJO being in phase in conjunction with the positive SAM. This opens the gates for moisture to pool and remain stagnant over the nation in the absence of cold fronts to sweep the moisture out. We saw the impacts of that in January and that was quite disruptive and damaging to many inland areas. So it is important to be weather aware. Exceptional moisture content is appearing on some of the charts but caution is advised on anything more than broad analysis, it is too difficult to be specific right now but the potential is there for some nasty weather events for parts of the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further analysis and your fly around.

A closer look in - as mentioned this will continue to chop and change and the placement of any wild card tropical systems will result in a narrow band of heavy rainfall coming through interior parts and spreading the rainfall into the east. Also note the SAM over the eastern areas.

I will have a look at the modelling and all things rainfall tonight after 9pm EDT as we are starting to see values come up and more analysis coming up from 8am EDT Friday.

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