NT - SHOWERS DECREASING WITH A TASTE OF DRY IN THE AIR.

The weather is settling further with drier air coming through today and more dry air surging north as the strong gradient winds set up with the low in the Tasman Sea and the high to the south of SA. Between the two, the gradient winds are fresh to strong and sending up a lot of drier more stable cooler air throughout the nation.


This heralds the start of the dry weather developing over the next few weeks and into May with the seasonal shift developing.


No change for interior parts of the nation including much of the NT


Lets get into it.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is forecast to become lean and limited to the far northern tropics with a drier airmass moving northwards with the southeast to southerly flow freshening over the interior of the nation. The winds will modify as they approach the NT but enough of a directional/flow shift to knock the showers and storms further north, hence why I have drawn rainfall numbers right down. There will still be some chance of thunderstorms but considered low and fairly isolated. Also there is a chance of further showers and storms into April, with further tropical waves to pass north of the NT during the coming 4-6 weeks so don't be lulled into the false dry just yet.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the far north but very isolated and most areas going dry during the afternoon and evening.

MEDIUM TERM FORECAST - April 7th-14th 2022


Moisture Watch

Moisture remains hard to find for inland areas through this time so the drier picture should continue for much of the nation as a whole. We should start to see moisture roll through the northern waters of the country with a tropical wave moving west. The onshore winds may also produce low moisture through QLD and over parts of NSW with some light falls, moderate over the tropics. Moisture coming through the jet stream from the Indian Ocean may hold the key to the drier pattern breaking down through this period with increasing falls over the southwest and possibly western interior of WA. That may have some chance of linking up with troughs or frontal weather mid month.

Rainfall Anomalies

Even though it is a drier picture it does fall within seasonal expectations for this time of year. The drier spell is part of the transition process and should not prove to be the start of a drought, rather than a movement away from warm season conditions and rainfall distribution to the cooler season and the cooler distribution of rainfall. The sub tropical ridge moving over the south of the nation is a part of the process and should actually be an alert to those watching the patterns that the heat is behind us until about October/November.

Temperature Anomalies

Above average temperatures are forecast to feature through this period with a large and stagnant area of high pressure leading to days of sunshine, warming the land and the airmass and this will see most areas over the period remaining in above average temperatures. No searing heat is forecast at this time, but will keep watch, but be advised that conditions will continue to transition out of the cooler than normal weather being experienced right now.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details can be found in the video - weather settling down after the next 4 days. You can see the daily breakdown in the video on this information below.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content over Australia is starting to wane with a drier gusty southerly flow moving through the east of the nation, being rotated around a high and bringing a drier phase for much of the next 2 weeks. You can see that by the drier air continuing through the next 2 weeks into the middle of the month.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - a nice kick of dry air for the coming 10 days but the moisture will return 1-2 more times before the wet season is done and we can stick a fork in it.

More coming up after 8am EDT. Have a great evening.



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